Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can managers trust Patrick Mahomes as a weekly fantasy starter?
2. Is Kenneth Walker a top-14 RB?
3. Can managers trust Rashee Rice to stay on the field?
4. Can Xavier Worthy crack the top 40?
5. Is Travis Kelce a weekly fantasy starter?
After 10 straight years of double-digits wins, equipped with one of the league's best defenses, a legendary QB in his prime, a legendary TE still putting up numbers, a #1 WR with incredible per-game production, the Chiefs went 6-11. A blip, or the end of a legit dynasty?
The latter idea holds some weight with Patrick Mahomes recovering from a season-ending injury, Travis Kelce soon turning 37, Rashee Rice dealing with off-the-field issues that *might* still result in suspension or some other punishment, . . . A lot could go wrong, has gone wrong, and might continue to sting this team and cap its playmakers' fantasy ceilings.
But I believe the market has overreacted. Mahomes' QB13 ADP (vs. QB14 last week) is one example. He was the overall QB1 thru Week 8, despite having Rice for only two of those games, and despite having one of the league's least-effective backfields. How did he do it? By racking up career-highs in rushing yards (422), rushing scores (five), and yards per carry (6.6). Also by getting the most out of a fading Marquise Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, helping Tyquan Thornton realize his best NFL season, and connecting frequently with the gradually declining Kelce.
I didn't mention Xavier Worthy, because the 2024 first-round pick so far has been a bust, at least by this franchise's standards. Mahomes mustered a 79.3 passer rating when targeting this 2024 first-round pick. He's an exciting player, and it's also unclear if he'll ever be a weekly fantasy starter.
I'm investing in Mahomes at his abysmal price point, because we know what he can do with Rice, Kelce, Worthy, and an improved backfield. He's a better-than-50/50 bet to start Week 1 and a great bet to crack the top 10, even if one of his main targets misses significant time.
As for Rice, who knows. His first three seasons have been brilliant and disastrous. He's responsible for much of both. I've got him as a fade at his surprisingly steady WR11 ADP, because I simply don't trust him to stay on the field. But that doesn't mean I'm in on Worthy (a steady WR49), at least not yet. Thornton (WR94 vs. WR93) is a low-ceiling #3 WR who might not remain the #3 for long.
That leaves 2025 fourth-rounder Jalen Royals (WR136 ADP vs. WR114 last week) and 2026 fifth-rounder Cyrus Allen (still unranked). Both are fascinating guys to track in camp. Allen is actually one of about 20 unranked playmakers I'm closely following. There's a decent chance that one of these two guys will earn starts, which could turn them into the #5 or even #4 offensive option.
So this is actually a youthful fantasy team. While the aged Kelce's (a steady TE11 ADP) ceiling has never been lower, four of Mahomes' eight potential top targets are 23 or younger. Two others are 25. One is 26. We have no idea how good some of these guys can be. So whether it's Worthy or Royals or Allen (or if I'm wrong about Thornton), someone surprising will step up.
In the backfield, landing Kenneth Walker obviously was huge. His RB11 ADP (vs. RB10 last week) is both reasonable and something to watch these next few weeks. After handling a relatively modest workload as an NFL starter in his first three years, he earned a career-high 326 touches (including the playoffs) during last year's championship run. Not worrisome, but also not ignorable. We might learn in August that head coach Andy Reid plans to give Emari Demercado (RB80 vs. RB82) some run as the 1B. Or fifth-round rookie Emmett Johnson (a steady RB55) might make good on his preseason hype. While Walker is a pretty safe weekly fantasy starter, I don't think he's getting another 300+ touches, making him more of a slight fade than a slight bargain.
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