Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Brock Purdy a top-12 QB?
2. Should managers trust Christian McCaffrey as an elite RB?
3. Is Jordan James or Kaelon Black the better handcuff to roster?
4. Is Mike Evans a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Will Ricky Pearsall put it all together in year 3?
In the past few years, has there been a team more unusual (from a fantasy perspective) than the win-now 49ers? Their core playmakers include (presumably) a future Hall-of-Fame running back, a future Hall-of-Fame wide receiver, and a future Hall-of-Fame tight end. All three are 30+ years old. Two of the three have elite / near-elite upside. So much can go right, and so much can go wrong.
It starts with Christian McCaffrey. I've already done a podcast episode on him this summer, and a second one touched on him and his teammates. In terms of year-by-year fantasy scoring rank, he's a 2x RB and a 3x RB1. As strange as it might seem, among all running backs who've entered the league these past 30 years, only CMC and Priest Holmes have been RB1s more than once. Only LaDainian Tomlinson has more top-2 RB seasons (six).
As incredible as McCaffrey's career has been, he's human. On August 14, 2020, when he was the top-ranked fantasy player based on ADP and expert rankings, I wrote a detailed counterpoint that ended with "The chance that CMC is a top-5 RB--that he plays all 16 games and can produce at or near last season's per-game level--is slim based on historical data." Got a lot of push-back on this page. But the data was the data, and I stood by it. McCaffrey got hurt in September and played only three games.
On August 1, 2024, I issued a similar warning about CMC after another high-volume campaign. Again, the data was the data. He ended up playing only four games that year.
McCaffrey is coming off a 450-touch season (including the playoffs). Only eight other times in NFL history has a 29+ year-old had 400+ touches. In their next season, seven of them faced sharp statistical declines (based on fantasy points): 17%, 17%, 25%, 29%, 35%, 52%, and 56%. Only 32-year-old Walter Payton did better . . . by 1.1 points.
Experts keep ignoring the evidence. The fantasy market is collectively convinced that he'll once again dominate. His RB3 ADP makes no sense. I cannot stress that enough. If you're playing the percentages, fade McCaffrey sharply.
That means either Jordan James (RB67 ADP vs. RB65 last week) or rookie Kaelon Black (RB70 vs. RB71) is a high-probability bargain. At least one should get some spot starts and/or earn solid complementary work throughout the season. You might need to draft both a couple rounds early, because whoever drafts CMC will be targeting one or both as a hedge.
The receiving corps is far more confusing. Mike Evans (a steady WR26 ADP) turns 33 next month. George Kittle (a steady TE9) turns 33 in November. Ricky Pearsall (a steady RB45) missed seven games last season with various injuries. Christian Kirk (WR78 vs. WR79) turns 30 in November and has been declining for at least two years.
Pearsall is the best value to me, but that's not saying much. I wouldn't be thrilled to land Kittle at his price point, and I would be even less happy drafting Evans or Kirk at their ADPs. Up to six guys will command attention each week. Brock Purdy (a steady QB11 ADP) is either undervalued or overvalued, depending on how bullish you are about everyone's durability. Losing CMC for significant time would mean losing his primary receiver (McCaffrey led this team in targets per game last year). Losing Evans or Pearsall could put more pressure on Kirk -- and not the good kind -- resulting in a net negative for Purdy.
I'm keeping a close eye this summer on second-round rookie De'Zhaun Stribling (WR77 vs. WR78 ADP) and did a podcast episode about him last week. He's locked out of the starting lineup for now. But between Evans, Pearsall, and Kirk, it's reasonable to believe at least one will miss time. That would open the door for Stribling -- the Niners' possible future #1 WR.
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