Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is C.J. Stroud draftable?
2. Is David Montgomery a top-24 RB?
3. Will Woody Marks build on his solid rookie campaign?
4. How should managers value Tank Dell?
5. Can Jayden Higgins or Jaylin Noel crack the top 50?
There are two main C.J. Stroud camps. One thinks his 2023 rookie breakout was a fluke, and that he's no better than a middling NFL quarterback with middling fantasy value. The other thinks we haven't seen the best from the 24-year-old.
I'm in the second camp. While most QBs deal with serious receiver injuries at some point in their careers, Stroud's case is pretty unique. He was 2023's QB9 when his top five targets were Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, an aged Robert Woods, and Noah Brown. Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce manned a lukewarm backfield. In other words, this was largely a Stroud-Collins-Dell-Schultz offense with replacement-level talent elsewhere.
The team replaced Singletary with Joe Mixon ahead of 2024 while tacking on Stefon Diggs. On paper, they looked like a powerhouse. But it didn't go as planned. Collins missed five games, Diggs missed nine, and Dell suffered a catastrophic injury from which he's still recovering. Stroud took 52 sacks.
Then more big changes ahead of 2025. The Texans drafted wideouts Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. RB pass-catching specialist Woody Marks went in the fourth. Joe Mixon's mysterious illness forced them to sign the fading Nick Chubb. A lack of WR experience forced them to add the fading Christian Kirk. Stroud "rebounded" despite missing three games and most of a fourth.
Statistically, it doesn't look like he rebounded very much, at least from a fantasy perspective. He was the QB23 in points per game, one spot above Jameis Winston and a little below Justin Fields.
But this where ADP has limitations. He's held a steady QB22 ADP this summer because of how he finished last year, and because (for understood reasons) he struggled in 2024. His ADP ignores the anticipated Year 2 development of Higgins and/or Noel. It ignores whatever impact Dell might have when he returns. It ignores an improved offensive line. It ignores how Stroud averaged a career-low 30.9 pass attempts last season, while only six teams had fewer RB targets.
In other words, there's a lot of room for improvement: a healthier and more talented receiving corps, better o-line protection, a more catch-happy backfield, etc. This year, Stroud really has rebound potential. Superflexers should snag him at least a couple rounds early. Deep leaguers should keep him on radars as a strong bye-week fill-in with streaming upside.
As for his receivers, Dell (WR75 ADP vs. WR76 last week) is the wild card. We'll know more in a few weeks whether he's ready to re-enter the starting lineup, or if he'll be relegated to a backup role while easing back in. Collins (WR9) is still the alpha, though I've knocked him down a couple spots due to (as referenced above) expected improvements from Higgins (a steady WR52) and/or Noel (a steady WR90). Both guys have massive breakout potential if Dell isn't starting. And I truly mean "massive."
And despite being a top-10 fantasy TE in four separate seasons, Schultz has been in the preseason top 10 only once. He entered this summer owning a TE23 ADP, and he's there today. I want to call him a bargain, and at the same time, a crowded WR corps makes it challenging . . . and the addition of second-round rookie Marlin Klein (unranked) makes it even more challenging. Schultz's days as a stand-alone #1 TE are winding down. The 30-year-old is a Best Ball flyer with a top 12-14 ceiling.
Finally, the backfield: As strongly as I feel about Stroud's bargain status (and about Higgins' and Noel's breakout potential if Dell isn't fully ready), nothing compares to how I feel about David Montgomery's fantasy value. If you have six minutes and want to hear more, listen to my podcast from late last month (episode 174). The shorter version is that his steady RB20 ADP assumes he's still capable of being a weekly fantasy starter.
One stat to keep in mind: entering 2025, he had been elite at breaking tackles. 169 in six seasons. Year after year, this helped propel him to fantasy prominence. For context, his broken-tackle rate was better than Bijan Robinson's and Jahmyr Gibbs' in their first three seasons. Incredible.
Last year, Montgomery had 182 touches. He broke three tackles. It was one of the worst showings of any 150+ touch RB I've ever seen. Yes, it's only one stat, and yes, he still managed to collect a very respectable 4.5 yards per carry. But while Houston's o-line is on the upswing, Montgomery is entering a worse situation than he had in Detroit's TD-happy offense. I'm fading him sharply and am leaning into Marks (a steady RB45 ADP), who had 261 catches (not a typo) in college and is poised to get more involved through the air.
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