Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Jared Goff be a top-12 QB?
2. How much can managers trust Isiah Pacheco as the new handcuff?
3. Is Jameson Williams a top-20 WR?
4. Can Isaac TeSlaa take another step forward?
5. Will Sam LaPorta be a weekly fantasy starter?
As part of my research for this write-up, I reviewed my now publicly available spreadsheet covering the 834 retired running backs who entered the NFL since 1996. Among the 150 RBs with at least 500 career fantasy points, James White averaged the most points per touch (1.51) and the most points per game (11.09). Among RBs with at least 1,500 career fantasy points, Darren Sproles averaged the most points per touch (1.33) and the most points per game (9.31).
An all-time great like LaDainian Tomlinson (3,457.3 career fantasy points) faded toward the end of his career, resulting in only 0.91 points per touch. But altogether, he collected a wildly impressive 20.34 points per game, while Arian Foster (19.18) is #2 on this list. Adrian Peterson hung around well past his prime years, leading to 0.78 points per touch and 14.92 points per game. It's hard for all-time greats to sustain high marks in both.
Statistically, Jahmyr Gibbs (a steady RB1 ADP) is on track to becoming an all-time great. At only 24 years old, he'll probably crack 1,000 career points in Week 2. By the time he turns 27, he might crack 2,000. In his first three seasons, he's served as the 1A in a backfield where his 1B (David Montgomery) averaged 213 touches. In other words, we haven't yet seen what Gibbs can do with monster volume. He's averaging 1.14 points per touch and 19.8 points per game on "only" 304 touches per year. Push that to 325 -- a rough baseline for high-end bell cows -- and it's clear that he has room to grow.
Some of that growth hinges on Isiah Pacheco's (a steady RB47 ADP) productivity. While Gibbs was the 12th player drafted in 2023, Pacheco was the 12th-to-last player drafted in 2022. (Pretty cool how that symmetry worked out, by the way.) Three years ago, rookie Gibbs was the RB10, while Pacheco was the RB15 -- a brief period where both had comparable re-draft fantasy value. Now, after battling injuries and diminished play, Pacheco will serve as Gibbs' backup.
The good news for those investing in Pacheco is that he doesn't have any serious competition for the #2 spot. As with Montgomery in prior years, if you draft Gibbs, you need to handcuff him with Pacheco. However, Pacheco lacks Montgomery's ceiling. In fact, Detroit still has about $14 million in cap space and could add a free agent to beef up the backfield. Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, and Najee Harris, might not have much left (or maybe one of them does). But the snag in the strategy for drafting Pacheco is that he's not a lock to remain the handcuff.
Through the air, Jared Goff (a steady QB15 ADP) is one of 10 or more non-top-12 QBs who realistically could finish in the top 12. I've written about this before -- and not just this summer. My publicly available "ADP vs. Scoring" spreadsheet shows that since 2012, the top 7-12 preseason QBs have averaged 246.2 points, while the preseason top 13-18 QBs have averaged only 4.8 points less. So collectively, managers have invested too much draft capital on top 7-12 quarterbacks. Goff easily could prove that point this year.
One advantage for Goff is receiver stability. Four of his top six targets from 2023 (Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta) probably will be his top four targets in 2026. All four of those guys are in their prime or pre-prime. That's a net positive that isn't generally reflected in ADPs.
There's not much to say about the steady ADPs of St. Brown (WR4) and Williams (WR25). Each summer I tag Williams as a bargain, and the same is true this summer. His target share (102 looks in 2025) has room to grow. Goff had a sterling 119.6 passer rating when targeting him last season. Aside from way too many drops (12), contributing to some inexplicably awful fantasy performances, Williams finished as the WR12. The market keeps underestimating him. Managers shouldn't.
Isaac TeSlaa is potentially intriguing at his WR68 ADP (vs. WR67 last week). I don't know what to make of a #3 WR who catches 16 passes for six touchdowns. The 2025 third-rounder had a prolific Division II college football career and a more modest two-year stint at Arkansas. Clearly he's trusted in high-leverage situations. The question is whether he can be the next Tyler Boyd (stand-alone streaming value), or if he'll be little more than a TD-dependent dart throw.
Sam LaPorta is even tougher to figure out. He was my TE11 in 2023 despite a TE18 ADP. Subscribers knew he was an ideal final pick if they passed on "better" tight ends earlier in their draft. LaPorta then shocked everyone (including me) with a TE1 season. Williams' 2024 ascension contributed somewhat to LaPorta's Year 2 regression. Last year the young tight end played some of his best football before getting knocked out after nine games. Goff's passer rating when targeting him was 128.7.
LaPorta's current (and steady) TE7 ADP suggests he's more of a bargain than a fade. He's dropped only one pass since the start of 2024. The 25-year-old still has elite upside. The targets will come.
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