Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Justin Herbert a top-8 QB?
2. Can Omarion Hampton be trusted as a top-10 RB?
3. Will Keaton Mitchell or Kimani Vidal serve as the handcuff?
4. Is Ladd McConkey the clear-cut #1 WR?
5. Can Quenstin Johnston and Tre' Harris operate as streamers, at minimum?
This year's Chargers seem like a very fantasy-friendly offense. And yet, I've been saying that about this franchise these past few years and have been wrong more often than right. O-line and RB injuries have contributed to their undoing. Last year was a microcosm of their health struggles, contributing to Justin Herbert absorbing a career-high 54 sacks. He lost two stellar offensive tackles for much of the season and rookie RB Omarion Hampton for eight games. Kimani Vidal played valiantly in relief, and L.A.'s deep receiving corps frequently stepped up. But it was another "what could have been" fantasy season for many managers.
Coming off a stellar 2021 campaign, Justin Herbert looked like a perennial near-elite QB. But he hasn't finished better than 10th since. Their best fantasy running back season these past three years was RB24 in 2024. Their best receiver finished as the WR28 last year. They've had only one top-10 TE in the past 11 seasons.
Again, injuries are a key reason why we're not seeing as much dominance. A full year of Herbert, Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Tre' Harris, and their offensive line could turn two or three of these guys into weekly must-starters. So let's assume they're not cursed, they're not more injury-prone than the average team, and they're well-positioned to be as good as they look on paper.
If that's the case, then Justin Herbert is at least "OK" at his steady QB7 ADP. The big problem is that there are several top 8-14 ADP quarterbacks with comparable upside to Herbert's. Do you draft him over Jalen Hurts (QB8), Trevor Lawrence (QB9), and Dak Prescott (QB10)? Do you completely ignore Jaxson Dart (QB13) and Patrick Mahomes (QB14)? So I'm not rushing to get Herbert when there's better value at other positions.
Hampton, on the other hand, seems poised to break out. I was excited to tag him as a bargain this offseason. Then when ADPs came out, he was the RB7, and my strategy unraveled. It's still RB7 and probably won't go down, which means if you're picking in the first half of the first round in a 12-team league, unless you go all in on him, he'll probably be gone before your next pick. But if he falls into your lap early in the second round, as long as you commit to pairing him with Vidal (RB62 vs. RB61 last week), Hampton is a terrific get.
I realize Keaton Mitchell (a steady RB44 ADP) is a trendier pick. But I view him as more of a sparkplug than a backup bell cow. Although the former undrafted free agent is fun to watch, Vidal seems more capable of carrying the load if Hampton again misses time.
The wideout corps is in flux for the third straight year. Last summer the market mistakenly assumed things were stable: McConkey was the clear-cut #1, and everyone else had ADPs outside the top 50. I did three podcast episodes and multiple blog posts in July and August explaining why these ADPs made absolutely no sense. Based on values, the market believed (a) that Herbert could lead an effective passing attack, and (b) that only one receiver (McConkey) would benefit.
In urging readers and listeners to fade McConkey, I walked through why his 2024 rookie breakout was based on conditions that were entirely different in 2025. Back in 2024, his top competition for targets was the still-acclimating Quentin Johnston. Herbert's #3 and #4 targets (combining for 129 looks) were Joshua Palmer and TE Will Dissly. The next-most-targeted receivers (97 combined looks) were Stone Smartt, Derius Davis, Simi Fehoko, Hayden Hurst, Jalen Reagor, and D.J. Chark. Incidentally, these six pass-catchers collected only 12 combined looks one year later. In other words, along with Palmer and Dissly, they were pretty much all fading talents.
Aside from warning about Saquon Barkley, calling out Charger WRs' bizarre ADPs was my biggest lobbying campaign of the preseason. If you drafted Keenan Allen for pennies (overall-145 ADP), you got L.A.'s top-scoring wideout. If you drafted Johnston for less than pennies (overall-221 ADP), you got their top-scoring wideout in points per game. This is why it's so important to identify and capitalize on gaps in the fantasy market's logic.
Has market adjusted in 2026? Not at all. It's as if last year never happened. McConkey's ADP is wR17 (vs. WR16 last week), only slightly below 2025's preseason mark. Next up: Johnston at WR36 (vs. WR37), followed by Harris at a steady WR65. Allen is sitting at WR96 (vs. WR106 last week), and if the Chargers sign him, there will be significant adjustments.
I understand that McConkey is talented. But so are his co-starters. Johnston and Harris are both bargains. Their ascension will put downward pressure on McConkey unless Herbert obliterates defenses through the air. In other words, Herbert at his best could feed three pass-catchers per game, which probably would include at least two wideouts.
At tight end, more questions than answers. Oronde Gadsden (TE17 ADP vs. TE16 last week) flashed as a rookie and appeared ready to take the next step. Then the team added David Njoku (a steady TE30) and Charlie Kolar (TE37 vs. TE50 last week). While Gadsden is expected to remain the #1, Njoku is barely 30 years old and can still contribute every week. I believe if management were all in on Gadsden, they wouldn't have swapped out Dissly and Tyler Conklin for a recent above-average starter (Njoku) and a high-priced ($17 million guaranteed for Kolar) "third-stringer" / blocker. I want to believe Gadsden is a bargain, but these roster moves make me nervous.
---
* Sign up for FF4W Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 188: "T.J. Hockenson" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html