Five Biggest Questions:
1. How good can Caleb Williams get?
2. Is D'Andre Swift a trustworthy top-20 RB?
3. Will Luther Burden and Rome Odunze earn weekly fantasy startability?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Is Colston Loveland a near-elite TE?
Caleb Williams took a meaningful step forward in Year 2, finishing as the QB7 in points per game and QB5 overall. As I discussed several times these past couple seasons, he inherited one of the best offenses any #1 overall QB draft pick has had in decades. That doesn't diminish his achievements; it puts those achievements in context.
Why have so many #1 overall QB draft picks had less-than-stellar careers? One reason is surrounding talent. Sam Bradford battled injuries. But when he entered the NFL in 2010, his top receivers were Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson, Daniel Fells, and Laurent Robinson. Alex Smith (2005) flopped early in his career leaning heavily on Arnaz Battle. More recently, Bryce Young (2023)'s best receiver during his first two seasons was 33-year-old Adam Thielen, followed closely by Jonathan Mingo, Xavier Legette, and Diontae Johnson.
Williams is a safe top-12 QB because (a) he's really talented, and (b) aside from a declining D.J. Moore, his top 2025 playmakers are returning. My concern is similar to my concern about a lot of quarterbacks ranked in the top 10: they're interchangeable. So when I see Williams has a steady QB6 ADP, I don't see why drafting him would be better than selecting a much lower-ranked QB like Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, or Bo Nix.
Williams' ADP is partly the product of finishing last season as the overall QB5 and as the QB7 in points per game. The market believes he belongs in the middle. I think it's more complex than that, making him an easy fade compared to the exceptional value we can snag later.
In the backfield, D'Andre Swift had his best statistical campaign in 2025, at least on the ground. His targets per game have declined since he left Detroit after 2022. Playing alongside Jamaal Williams in 2021, Swift was #4 in the league with 62 receptions. Last year he was #22 with 34. Unless this changes, Swift will need to replicate last season's efficiency (4.9 yards per carry) and scoring (nine rushing TDs) to have a shot at matching his RB17 points per game. Fortunately, the market recognizes this, handing him a steady RB21 ADP. I'm comfortable rolling the dice at that price point.
Kyle Monangi once again will be his handcuff, and we'll see if the 24-year-old can take another step forward. 27% of his touches came in two games, including his one start when Swift was sidelined. Although his steady RB34 ADP seems a bit too bullish, I understand the need to reach for Monangai if you draft Swift.
Through the air, we need to work backwards. Third-round rookie Zavion Thomas (WR96 ADP vs. WR104 last week) is the wild card. Chicago might have reached by drafting him that early. Maybe they weren't satisfied with UDFA Jahdae Walker (a steady WR103) or nearly 32-year-old Kalif Raymond (WR135 vs. WR112) serving as the #3 WR. Thomas (or perhaps Walker) is one key to whether Luther Burden (WR23 vs. WR21) and Rome Odunze (a steady WR29) are bargains. Raymond lacks upside, while the upsides of Thomas and Walker are unknown.
If Thomas wins the #3 job in camp, I might knock Burden or Odunze down a couple spots, as it would signal that Thomas is NFL-ready. If Walker wins it, it's a toss-up. If Raymond wins it, then I'll be all in on Burden and Odunze at those price points.
As for Colston Loveland, there might not be a trendier fantasy tight end. With a steady TE3 / overall-41 ADP, he's viewed as a can't-miss near-elite or elite option. I'm a little more cautious. Yes, he was a 2025 first-round pick, and yes, he had three 20+ point performances. But Odunze was out for two of them. Burden and Swift sat for the other one. Loveland has a fantastic floor and deserves to be in the top 7. Maybe he deserves to be in the top 5. And yet, drafting him in the fourth round in 12-team leagues seems unnecessary.
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