Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Joe Burrow a top-5 QB?
2. Can Chase Brown a top-10 RB?
3. Should Ja'Marr Chase be the first WR drafted?
4. Should Tee Higgins' injury history keep him outside the top 20?
5. Will Andrei Iosivas or Colbie Young win the #3 WR job, and will it matter?
When healthy, Cincinnati has one of the most impressive foursomes in fantasy. "When healthy" is the key. Joe Burrow missed six games in 2020, seven in 2023, and nine last season. Yet he's eclipsed 20 fantasy points in 40% of his career starts, and 9% of the time he's hit 30+. Very few pocket quarterbacks have his ceiling. Very few quarterbacks have his surrounding talent.
Drafting Burrow means accepting some degree of higher-than-normal risk. On a per-game basis, few are safer. On a season-long basis, many are safer.
The good news is that his past injuries aren't chronic. The bad news is that -- as discussed in past years -- he's getting sacked way too often. Last year he actually had his best sack rate ever: he was taken down on 6.2% of his passing plays. He was well over 8% in his first two seasons. For context, the only 2026 starters with career sack rates above 8% are Daniel Jones and Geno Smith.
I'm almost comfortable drafting Burrow at his steady QB3 ADP. My challenge is that, as subscribers know, QBs 2 thru 9 are packed together on my rankings spreadsheet. For example, there isn't a sizable advantage to drafting Burrow at his overall-60 ADP vs. Dak Prescott at overall-81. So even when someone is priced right, it doesn't make them worth the price. At this point, I'd rather punt on QB -- including Burrow -- lock in a terrific-upside top-24 RB or WR, and then grab QB value later.
In the backfield, Chase Brown already has done more than most former fifth-rounders do for their entire careers. In a 2022 draft class that featured Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and De'Von Achane, Brown has bettered every other RB selected that year. His RB10 ADP (vs. RB9 last week) might make him a bargain. It depends what you think of the durability of Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley, for example.
It's a good sign (for those bullish about Brown) that Cincy doesn't have a handcuff who could rival him. Samaje Perine (a steady RB73 ADP) will turn 31 in September. The plummeting Tahj Brooks (RB100 vs. RB80 last week) underwhelmed as a rookie. As good as Brown was last year, he had "only" 232 carries. Thanks to elite-level usage in the passing game, he can be a workhorse -- but not overworked -- and still finish in the top 10.
Not much needs to be said about Ja'Marr Chase. Just like last summer, his ADP is WR1. Unlike last summer, he's not ranked #1 overall. That's fine with me. He just led the league with 185 targets and is still in his prime or pre-prime. Elite numbers are almost assured if he's on the field. Monster numbers are achieveable.
Tee Higgins is a different story. When healthy, he's a fantastic #2 WR capable of finishing in the top 12 in points per game. Unfortunately, managers often have to deal with a lot of questionable tags and the occasional game-time decision. I traded for him last year and, despite the turmoil, was glad I did. He was the WR16 in points per game thanks to a strong second half. Last week, his WR19 ADP seemed too low. Now it's WR16. I still think it's too low.
Meanwhile, the #3 WR role is between free-falling Andrei Iosivas (WR119 ADP vs. WR100 last week) and fourth-round rookie Colbie Young (WR142 vs. WR138). Because of Higgins' health concerns, we might assume this battle matters, as the "winner" could benefit if Higgins or Chase gets hurt. But in the two games Higgins missed last year, #3 Iosivas collected only one catch on three targets for 29 yards and a score. Because of their poor rankings, I'm expecting one to pop into the top 85 in camp.
And Mike Gesicki's presence might be good news for everyone else. Not his fault, of course. Gesicki will turn 31 in October and has one of the lowest ceilings of any starting tight end. His TE33 ADP (vs. TE34 last week) puts him behind backups like Jake Tonges. That accurately captures his upside, and it's also one more reason why this offense is so top-heavy -- to the benefit of managers willing to spend big.
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