Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Trevor Lawrence replicate his 2025 breakout?
2. Is Bhayshul Tuten the clear-cut #1 RB?
3. Can Brian Thomas at least come close to returning to his 2024 form?
4. Is Parker Washington for real?
5. What role will a healthy Travis Hunter play?
My Jaguars rundown last July 16 included:
"There are five reasons why I'm still uber-bullish about [Trevor] Lawrence. Why I'm confident that if you don't trade for him in dynasty before September, you'll miss out for good. Why I'm near-certain he will be the breakout I (we?) have been waiting for. . . ."
Longtime readers and podcast listeners know I (like many of you) have long believed it's "when" not "if" regarding Lawrence's breakout. As a 2021 rookie, his three top-targeted wideouts were 31-year-old Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Laquon Treadwell. Lawrence took a big step forward in 2022 with Christian Kirk, Zay and Marvin Jones, and Evan Engram. The following year, a step back with Kirk, Zay, Engram, and Calvin Ridley, who was returning after a nearly two-year hiatus. Then in 2024, he played barely half a season while throwing to (eventual) rookie phenom Brian Thomas, Parker Washington, and TE Brenton Strange, along with Kirk, Engram, and Gabe Davis.
The somewhat consistent components have been a steadily declining Kirk and a steadily declining Engram. He has thrown to his fair share of journeyman cast-offs. Entering his fourth season, the only rookie WRs/TEs Lawrence had thrown to was the sixth-rounder Washington and Strange, accounting for a combined 30 targets. The Jags had hoped free agent signings would do the trick. It didn't work.
Despite a lot of hiccups last season, including Thomas's rough campaign and Travis Hunter's season-ending injury, Lawrence found his groove in late November and never looked back. Thomas, Washington, and Strange took turns playing prominent roles. All of them are home-grown talents, drafted into a system that finally broke through with the help of key acquisition Jakobi Meyers.
Several years ago, I shared how Patrick Mahomes had just come off a season where his top eight (or nine or 10) targets were all drafted as Chiefs. That hadn't happened in . . . 10 years? 20? 50? His chemistry with his pass-catchers ran deep, to the benefit of the whole offense.
In 2026, most of Lawrence's top targets are returning. Thomas, Hunter, Washington, Strange, and Meyers form the nucleus, with four of those five drafted by Jacksonville. Head coach Liam Coen is back. So is offensive coordinator Grant Udinski. Consider that in addition to a rotating cast of receivers, Lawrence had three different head coaches in his first 18 NFL games. It's hard to develop with that much instability.
So I'm sold on Lawrence -- and I'm especially sold given his modest QB9 ADP (vs. QB10 last week). That's more of a floor than a ceiling for a highly talented quarterback with an array of familiar, ascending receivers.
Regarding those receivers, Thomas (WR30 ADP vs. WR31 last week) easily is the biggest wild card. Will he be the alpha, or will last year's struggles carry over? While I'm neutral on him for now, I'm fading Washington (WR33 vs. WR32 last week), who stepped up late last season with the help of a relatively huge target share. Those looks won't be as frequent this season; he will probably finish outside the top 40.
That leaves Meyers as an "ok" flier at his WR46 ADP (vs. WR47 last week), while Hunter (WR68 vs. WR66) is a complete mystery. Actually, he might be a bigger wild card than Thomas, though with lower stakes. Hunter's injury recovery, combined with questions about his offensive role, make him a much better "keep on the radar" guy than a bench stash. There are safer good-upside players to roster. The same goes for Strange (a steady TE19), who could be a top-12 tight end on teams with thin receiving corps. Unfortunately, that's not the case here.
Finally, less than a year ago, Jacksonville's backfield featured Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, and rookies Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen. Based on ADP, Bigsby was supposed to challenge Etienne for the top spot. So things have changed pretty quickly, and it's still fairly open. Although Tuten (a steady RB24 ADP) is expected to be the #1, trendy flyer Chris Rodriguez (a steady RB43) and Allen (RB78 vs. RB76) loom.
Tuten's price point assumes no less than a 1A role, and possibly a workhorse. The problem is that the little we've seen from Tuten has not been overly impressive. That doesn't mean he'll be a bust. But the hype seems bigger than the evidence, at least for now. This looks like a backfield that'll have volatile ADPs these next 5-6 weeks. A lot hinges on whether Rodriguez looks poised to push for a timeshare.
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