Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Kyler Murray win the starting job and maintain fantasy relevance?
2. Will Aaron Jones outproduce Jordan Mason?
3. Can Justin Jefferson return to fantasy greatness?
4. Is Jordan Addison a better bet than Jauan Jennings
5. Can T.J. Hockenson be at least a streamer?
I'm still trying to wrap my head around why the fantasy market believes in Kyler Murray, despite the fact that the bottom-feeder Cardinals decided career journeyman Jacoby Brissett was preferable to their former franchise quarterback. More than that, Arizona is paying Murray nearly $37 million *not* to play for them, and they're absorbing more than $50 million in dead cap these next two seasons.
Murray has long been an overvalued dynasty QB. In my first post about him on June 28, 2019, I shared concerns about his diminutive size combined with his aggressive style of play. There was no evidence of a QB 5'10" or shorter thriving in the NFL. Murray was a brilliant college player. That didn't mean he was well-suited for the rigors of the pros. He missed three games in 2021, six in 2022, nine in 2023, and 12 last year (though some of those 12 might have been unofficial benchings).
On a per-game basis, he hasn't been much better than "solid" these past four seasons, delivering a roughly 90.0 passer rating and merely above-average (by today's standards) rushing prowess. The fact that he looked worse than Brissett -- despite the latter having fewer healthy playmakers at his disposal --is not a promising sign heading into 2026.
That said, Murray is an upgrade over the 2025 version of J.J. McCarthy. That's why the Vikings brought him in. After letting Sam Darnold walk, they're desperate for a quarterback who can help elevate -- or at least stabilize -- what should be an upper-tier passing attack.
But Murray's QB18 ADP (vs. QB17 last week) is concerning for three reasons. First, he's not the same dual-threat QB that we saw early in his career -- particularly in his Year 2 breakout. Turning 29 next month, he's about a year or two away from becoming what most run-friendly quarterbacks become: a much more pass-reliant fantasy option with a significantly floor. Second, we cannot ignore his durability issues, which might prompt him to run less.
Third, his market value assumes McCarthy has no chance to overtake him. But not so fast. Sure, McCarthy failed his first big NFL test last season. But who honestly thought Brissett would comfortably outperform Murray in Arizona last year? McCarthy is priced (QB41 ADP) as undraftable even in most Superflex leagues. I think his and Murray's ADPs should be a little closer together. That doesn't mean I believe in McCarthy. Instead, it means I think McCarthy poses a threat to Murray's season-long upside, as there's no guarantee that either one starts more than 12 games.
Because let's remember that Murray is on a one-year deal. This franchise will need to decide in a few months whether to go all in on Murray ahead of his age-30 season, put its faith back in McCarthy, or blow up the entire process and pursue a third option next offseason. A lot has to go right for Murray to be healthy/productive/starting all year, especially in a tough division where every other team has better postseason and Super Bowl odds.
That leaves a lot of question marks for the rest of the offense, particularly Justin Jefferson, whose bizarre (to me, anyway) WR5 ADP assumes a return to greatness, despite all of the questions surrounding this QB corps. Jefferson's actually been sitting at WR5 for more than a month. If this were a top-heavy passing attack, maybe it wouldn't seem farfetched. But with Jordan Addison (WR46 vs. WR44 last week) still in peak form, and with the addition of Jauan Jennings (WR61 vs. WR59), this team has its deepest WR corps in years. Meanwhile, T.J. Hockenson (a steady TE22 ADP) isn't far removed from finishing a season as the TE2 in points per game.
I have almost no doubt that Hockenson will rebound. I also have (almost) no doubt that Addison or Jennings will prove to be a bargain. Hard to say who. Addison has the inside track, though Jennings was brought in to contribute as a starter, and he's a proven playmaker with an eye for the end zone. Given this clutter of talent and the debatable talent/durability at QB, I'm pushing Jefferson outside my top 10.
As for the backfield, what a mess. Aaron Jones (a steady RB40 ADP) will turn 32 in December. When healthy and starting, he'll exceed expectations. The problem is that every realistic scenario (including missing a chunk of time due to injuries) makes him risky. Jordan Mason (RB39 vs. RB41 last week) is the better bet, with speedy sixth-round rookie Demond Claiborne (RB66 vs. RB68) offering a reasonable hedge for deep leaguers banking on a backfield timeshare if Jones or Mason gets hurt. In fact, I'd be shocked if Claiborne doesn't get 50+ touches.
---
* Sign up for FF4W Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 181: "Bills Rookie WR Skyler Bell" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html