Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Aaron Rodgers benefit from an improved receiving corps?
2. Is Jaylen Warren a top-24 RB?
3. Will Rico Dowdle pick up where he left off in Carolina?
4. Can D.K. Metcalf be a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Can Michael Pittman push for the #1 WR role?
Happy July 4th to those who celebrate. The Steelers have been in an interesting spot since Ben Roethlisberger's 2021 send-off: good enough to be a perennial playoff contender, but not good enough to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Based on Vegas odds, they're once again in that no-man's-land of goodness, but not greatness.
For the first time in 57 years, their head coach will be someone other than Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher, or Mike Tomlin. Noll was 37 when he took over -- his first and last NFL head coaching gig. Cowher and Tomlin were 35 -- also their first (and quite possibly last) head coaching jobs.
New head coach Mike McCarthy breaks the mold for this franchise, which has had only eight losing seasons since 1972. He's been a head coach for 19 of the past 20 seasons, including a long stretch with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. By and large, his teams have been incredibly fantasy-friendly. How much is because of him, and how much is because he's coached Brett Favre, Rodgers, and Dak Prescott, along with a string of very talented backfields and receiving corps?
He's inheriting a relatively conservative offense, led by a fading 42-year-old legend. Last year's Rodgers-led attack had only 41 pass plays for 20+ yards -- tied with Tennessee for the seventh-fewest. Pittsburgh's tight ends were targeted 155 times -- the fourth-most in the NFL. They called the fifth-fewest offensive plays per game. So yeah, a conservative offense.
Aside from McCarthy's track record and the addition of Michael Pittman Jr. (along with Rico Dowdle, who might or might not be an upgrade over the departed Kenneth Gainwell), very little points to a sudden surge in fantasy relevance for a team accustomed to somewhat muted production in recent years. Since 2019, they've had zero top-12 fantasy QBs, one top-12 RB, and one top-12 WR. Going way back, they've had only one TE finish in the top 6 since 1998 (and possibly earlier -- that's as far as I checked).
If anything, Pittman's arrival should make it harder for managers to gauge whether to invest heavily in any Steeler receiver, and the fantasy market seems to agree. Rodgers' ADP is a steady QB27. The values of Jaylen Warren (RB27) and Dowdle (RB33) have been the same for more than a week. They appear to be ranked as streamers at best, which seems like a fair assessment. The same goes for D.K. Metcalf (WR35 vs. WR34 last week) and Pittman (WR41 vs. WR40), neither of whom has an obvious leg up. Second-round rookie Germie Bernard (WR81 vs. WR83) would be intriguing on some other teams. But realistically, what chance does he have (barring injuries) to break through as the presumed #3 wideout?
Pat Freiermuth might be the best bargain, though that's not saying much. Last year he was part of a three-headed TE corps with Jonnu Smith and Darnell Washington. With Smith gone, Freiermuth's TE28 ADP (vs. TE26 last week) is probably more of a floor than a ceiling, as the 27-year-old former second-round pick is far better than his career stats suggest. Rodgers enjoyed an incredible 119.8 passer rating when targeting Freiermuth. The year before, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields collectively had a 126.1 passer rating when targeting him. His output in 2026 hinges on whether this team commits to him as the clear-cut #1 tight end over Washington.
On the fringes are forgotten 2025 rookie Kaleb Johnson (RB105 ADP vs. RB109 last week) and trendy rookie Eli Heidenreich (a steady RB76). The latter's college usage suggests (based on historical numbers) that he'll have an uneventful fantasy career; he has one of the lowest ceilings of any top-125 RB. But former third-rounder Johnson is too talented to be entirely ignored. Dynasty managers have nothing to lose acquiring him for pennies. While there have been plenty of Day 2 NFL draft busts, it's too soon to put that label on Johnson. In a couple months, we'll have a better idea whether he'll ride the bench all season, or if he could push his way into an otherwise crowded rotation.
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