Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Jaxson Dart a top-10 QB
2. Will Cam Skattebo return as the bell cow?
3. Can Malik Nabers enjoy a healthy season?
4. Who will serve as the #2 WR, and will it matter?
5. Will Isaiah Likely be a weekly fantasy starter?
Last year's Giants had only their second top-14 fantasy QB in the past 10 seasons and second top-14 WR in the past nine seasons. Five guys finished in the top 70 overall offensive producers, compared to only one in each of the previous two seasons. The youth movement is real, and it's turned what had long been a Saquon-Barkley-or-bust fantasy situation into a dynamic opportunity for managers seeking weekly starters.
Jaxson Dart was electric, posting 19+ points in nine of his 12 starts. And he did almost all of his damage without Malik Nabers and a majority of it without reception-friendly Cam Skattebo. And this is where things get interesting: Dart's ADP has been dropping: it was QB11 last week, and now it's QB14 / overall-97. Who has overall-96, -95, and -94 ADPs? Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Brock Purdy. Given the league's huge collection of quarterback talent, the market would have a tough time pushing Dart into the top 10.
Some reasons why: He was sacked on 9.4% of his pass plays, which is really high. He was repeatedly checked for concussions and also missed two games with a head injury. 43% of his fantasy production came on the ground. Being "very good" in Year 2 means remaining a solid dual-threat quarterback and not missing too many games. Managers need to decide if the risk is worth the reward. As long as his ADP remains this low, the risks seem worths it.
In the backfield, Cam Skattebo (a steady RB19 ADP) is viewed as the clear-cut #1 overall Tyrone Tracy (a steady RB41). On paper, both guys played similarly well. But Skattebo quickly ascended to the top spot before getting knocked out for the season in Week 8. So the market assumes that Skattebo will be the bell cow, and Tracy will be a glorified handcuff. I'm not convinced. Even if Skattebo is 100% after his brutal injury, will this team continue handing him 20+ touches a game? Rather than a 75-25 split, I think 60-40 is more realistic for a team with two young, talented running backs.
Through the air, Malik Nabers might return for Week 1. We'll know more . . . when we know more. When the team recently signed Odell Beckham Jr., JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Braxton Berrios, it seemed concerning for Nabers' early-season outlook. They'd already added Darnell Mooney and Calvin Austin III in the offseason while drafting Malachi Fields. Why tack on three nearly retired receivers?
The fantasy market recognizes this, as Nabers' ADP has since dropped from WR15 to WR18. His 2024 breakout was remarkable. The former #6 overall draft pick surely will be great when active. But as with Dart and Skattebo, there's risk. If he's declared ready for Week 1, then maybe his ADP will move up to 10-12. Regardless, he's a wait-and-see must-start WR, if that makes sense.
Elsewhere, the rookie Fields is my favorite Giants bargain. His plummeting WR98 ADP (vs. WR86 last week) sits well behind Mooney (a steady WR76) and slightly ahead of Darius Slayton (WR109 vs. WR108). Presumably, any of these three guys could end up as the #2 WR. But both Mooney and Slayton have either peaked or are in decline. The former will turn 29 in October; the latter will turn 30 in January. New York selected Fields in the third round. If he shows well this preseason, his ADP probably will pop into the top 60, which is close to where I have him on my draft board.
And by acquiring Isaiah Likely (TE13 ADP vs. TE12 last week), the Giants finally have a franchise tight end. After operating behind Mark Andrews for four years, Likely can finally be the lead guy. I'm tentatively optimistic, especially since he was handed $26 million guaranteed. Much hinges on how pass-happy Dart will be. For now, Likely is one of about a dozen non-top-10 TEs I'm targeting near the end of my draft: a solid streamer with decent upside.
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