Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Cam Ward take a meaningful step forward?
2. Is Tony Pollard still a safe fantasy starter/streamer?
3. Could rookie RB Nicholas Singleton shake up this backfield?
4. Can Carnell Tate make good on Tennessee's big draft investment?
5. Will Wan'Dale Robinson remain at least a streamer on his new team?
In 38 drafts from 1960 to 1997, only nine QBs (24%) went #1 overall. Since Peyton Manning's arrival in 1998, 22 QBs (76%) went #1 overall. 18 of those 22 quarterbacks secured either a Heisman Trophy or Pro Bowl accolades -- and in many cases, both. The only four who didn't were Tim Couch (1999), David Carr (2002), JaMarcus Russell (2007), and Cam Ward (2025).
Of course, Ward has plenty of time to claim Pro Bowl honors, and given what we saw last year, I think he'll be consistent fantasy asset for years to come.
Strange, right? "Given what we saw last year . . ." What's so special about a sub-60% completion percentage, 3,169 passing yards, a 15-7 TD-INT ratio, and 159 rushing yards? The year before, #1 overall pick / rookie Caleb Williams completed 62.5% of his throws for a relatively sterling 3,541-20-6 receiving line, as well as 489 yards on the ground.
But Williams joined one of the best offenses a #1 overall QB pick has ever seen. Ward? Not so much. Three of his four top targets were fellow rookies, and not the kind who can take over offenses. In what might have been unprecedented, Tennessee selected three pass-catchers in the fourth round: WR Elic Ayomanor, WR Chimere Dike, and TE Gunnar Helm. Fourth-round receivers usually don't make much noise in Year 1, and many don't do much for their whole careers.
But this trio had to perform far above historical expectations, and by extension, Ward had to do the near impossible and play "well" with the least-experienced receiving corps a rookie QB has had in years, or even decades.
That's why Ward's 3,169-15-7 passing line was kind of incredible, especially when you consider he led the league by taking 55 sacks (something he and the offensive line will need to fix in Year 2). Sure, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears helped. But they combined for only 470 receiving yards and zero receiving TDs. Ward leaned almost entirely on guys who wouldn't have started on many/most teams.
That's why his QB23 ADP (QB22 last week) is fascinating. Many QBs have taken giant steps forward in their second season. Rookie Lamar Jackson was satisfactory as a 2018 rookie, entered the 2019 season with a QB14 ADP, and proceeded to post QB1 numbers nearly 80 points above the QB2. Jalen Hurts went from full-time starter in 2021 to QB1 in points per game in 2022. Caleb Williams was the QB24 in points per game as a 2024 rookie and then the QB7 last year.
Ward's Year 2 jump has better than 50/50 odds, in large part because this franchise invested heavily in #4 overall pick WR Carnell Tate (a steady WR30 ADP), and high-end #2 receiver (with #1 abilities) Wan'Dale Robinson (WR49 vs. WR52 last week). What Tate lacks in experience, he makes up for in game-changing playmaking. With the fading Calvin Ridley (WR75 vs. WR70) sticking around, both Ayomanor (WR112) and Dike (WR121) are on the outside looking in. It's like a Division 1 basketball team starting all freshmen in the first half, and then trotting out their regular starters after halftime. 2026 marks the "second half" for Ward in his acclimation to the NFL, and now he gets to throw to guys who can elevate him beyond mediocrity.
One caveat is that we don't know his ceiling. Right behind him in ADP are Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones. He was recently leapfrogged by C.J. Stroud. Those three guys have all been great statistically at some point(s) in their careers. Ward hasn't.
In 12-team leagues, managers currently can get Tate in the 5th or 6th round, Robinson in the 9th or 10th, and Ward around the 11th or 12th. Drafting all three would be intriguing. But their ceilings might not (yet) be high enough to make it work.
As for Helm (TE26 ADP vs. TE25 last week), while I want to believe he'll build on his promising rookie campaign, the more crowded receiving corps makes me nervous. Although it wouldn't be surprising if he finishes in the top 18-to-20, anything inside the top 16 seems like a longshot.
The backfield also makes me nervous. If we trust the relationship between college touches and NFL productivity about running backs going back nearly 30 years (per my research), Pollard is nearing the end of his fantasy career. He has surpassed Kenyan Drake as the most productive low-college-usage NFL RB, making him a true fantasy unicorn. While there's no clear evidence that he's slowing down, the 29-year-old is entering the final year of his contract. He would have to keep defying history -- and also fend off a more competitive and healthier backfield -- to make good on his RB28 ADP (vs. RB29 last week). I'm steering clear.
Tyjae Spears is a bit more appealing at his RB49 ADP (vs. RB50), but only if descending fifth-round rookie Nicholas Singleton (RB62 vs. RB53) falters in camp. Spears's injury history can be overlooked if Singleton isn't ready. But if the rookie makes things interesting, it could upend this depth chart and make the rookie the best backfield value pick on this team.
---
* Sign up for FF4W Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 178: "Why Drafting WR-WR Last Year Was Surprisingly Risky" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html