Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Jayden Daniels a top-5 QB?
2. Will Jacory Croskey-Merritt outperform Rachaad White?
3. Can rookie RB Kaytron Allen push for fantasy relevance?
4. Will Terry McLaurin be a safe weekly fantasy starter?
5. Should managers roster any other receivers?
On episode 27 of the FF4W podcast last summer, I expressed concerns about Jayden Daniels' Year 2 ADP -- that the market was viewing his rookie-year breakout as his floor rather than his ceiling or midpoint. We simply can't quantify a young player's floor, ceiling, or midpoint. Over time, it starts to make sense. But after one season, the best bet often is to view those numbers as a midpoint, and then assess the variables impacting Year 2 improvement or regression.
While his injury woes could not have been easily predicted, it seemed clear that his QB3 ADP was far too ambitious. Sure enough, he regressed across the board, including significant drops in completion percentage and yards per carry. In fairness, he ran into a buzzsaw in Minnesota in Week 14, which upended what had been a decent per-game fantasy season. Still, even if he had sat against the Vikings, he would have been the QB9 in points per game: great, but not elite or near-elite.
Daniels is one of 14 or more QBs with strong top-8 potential. Yet his ADP is QB5 (vs. QB4 last week). Is he that much better/safer than QB9 Dak Prescott, QB10 Trevor Lawrence, QB11 Jaxson Dart, etc.? These two things are true: Daniels remains a fantastic young quarterback with yearly top-10 potential. But I'd caution managers not to invest that much capital in a guy who took a step back in an injury-plagued Year 2, especially when you can secure a comparably great-ceiling QB later.
The backfield is as muddied as it was last summer. Jacory Croskey-Merritt led the way last week with an RB37 ADP, with recent acquisition Rachaad White close behind at RB42. Now those rankings are reversed: White at RB37 and JCM at RB42. We'll probably know by mid-August how this will shake out, at least for Week 1. After that, who knows. If not for rookie Kaytron Allen (RB57 vs. RB58 last week), I'd recommend drafting both JCM and White for the hedge, on the assumption that one realistically could break through. But Allen has college workhorse experience and could carve out an early role. This is one of the toughest fantasy backfields to figure out.
What about Jerome Ford? It's not just his RB99 ADP (vs. RB102 last week). His light college workload has long signaled that his fantasy career won't amount to much. Sounds harsh, but that's what the numbers show, and that's why I keep bringing it up. Last year in Cleveland he ran behind struggling rookie Dylan Sampson and was outplayed by UDFA Raheim Sanders. Ford is a longshot to be fantasy relevant again.
Through the air, Terry McLaurin is going on 31 years old, and the market is still can't forget his 2024 breakout, when he racked up 13 touchdowns while operating alongside Olamide Zaccheaus, Noah Brown, and Dyami Brown. Yet he was targeted less than seven times per contest. Essentially, he threaded the needle to achieve fantasy greatness despite being the unquestioned alpha, and that needle cannot be easily re-threaded (or something like that). He's a fade at his WR22 ADP, which inexplicably is three spots better than last week's rank..
If you're going to invest in any Commander, make it third-round rookie Antonio Williams, who has a shot (yes, a shot) at leading this club in receptions. Williams is competing against McLaurin, Treylon Burks (WR100 vs. WR120), the previously mentioned Dyami Brown (WR104 vs. WR148), Luke McCaffrey (WR107 vs. WR139), and Jaylin Lane (unranked vs. WR132). Williams has dropped five spots this past week to WR68. If he wins the #2 role, he'll be an easy bargain.
Also, notice what's happening with these ADPs. The market doesn't know what to think about the Commanders' secondary/tertiary receivers. That's a lot of movement for Burks, Brown, McCaffrey, and even Lane. Williams' edge on the next-closest wideout had been 57 spots. Now it's 32. It could be several weeks before their ADPs begin to stabilize.
As for tight ends, two years ago Zach Ertz's days as a fantasy-relevant tight end appeared to be over, or close to it. Then he posted TE7 numbers, as the rookie Daniels looked his way early and often. If Chig Okonkwo gets even two-thirds of that attention, he should be priced right at his TE17 ADP (vs. TE19 last week). Still, we don't know what role Ben Sinnott and John Bates might play, and Okonkwo hasn't proven that he can be a top-12 guy. For now, he's safe to leave off draft boards, and he also should be kept on deep-league radars in case he fills a gap that Ertz filled previously.
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* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 175: "Take My Research, Please" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html