Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Geno Smith helm a top-20 passing attack?
2. Will Breece Hall be a weekly fantasy starter?
3. Is Braelon Allen draftable?
4. Are any WRs besides Garrett Wilson draftable?
5. Can rookie TE Kenyon Sadiq be a weekly fantasy starter?
Last summer on this blog and on the FF4W podcast, I wondered why Justin Fields' QB ADP was in the 10-12 range, ahead of guys like Dak Prescott and Caleb Williams. It was as if managers thought Fields suddenly would have a career year after losing starting jobs in Chicago and Pittsburgh.
This year, the market has been approaching this team more cautiously. And with Geno Smith being investigated by Florida police, "caution" is the key word. We have no idea who will be quarterbacking this squad in Week 1. If it's Geno Smith (QB30 ADP vs. QB29 last week), he'll be their 10th starting QB since 2022. He's "home" nearly a decade after the franchise that drafted him #39 overall decided they'd seen enough. Actually, the Jets gave up on him two years before that after only 29 starts. Smith's top targets were Santonio Holmes (11 games) and Jeremy Kerley (12 games) in Year 1 and post-prime Eric Decker (15 games) and Percy Harvin (eight games) in Year 2. Smith never had a chance.
If the Jets are forced to roll with rookie Cade Klubnik, Brady Cook, or Bailey Zappe, then nothing written below will be relevant. The fantasy situation would be worse than last year's. Managers probably would need to fade everyone.
But if Smith is cleared of wrongdoing, and if the Jets turn him loose like Seattle did during his resurgence from 2022 to 2024, then he could push for 3,500+ yards and 25+ scores. While I wouldn't be excited to draft him in Superflex or in very deep leagues, he should get all he can handle until/unless Klubnik is somehow ready to take over. The odds favor Smith to keep starting as long as he's healthy and not in legal peril.
I whiffed on Breece Hall last season, believing he could have another breakout season. He was only the RB21 in points per game, thanks in part to netting only 48 targets -- down from 76 the year before and 95 in 2023. He ran fine and had a career-high 243 carries. But if he remains underutilized in the passing game, his ceiling will be capped around RB16. Currently his ADP is RB 14 (vs. RB15 last week). I'm tentatively comfortable (if that makes sense) investing in him at that price point, with the understanding he's capable of being a weekly must-starter, especially if the offense (which has been bottom-five in points scored in six of the past seven seasons) makes strides.
Once again, Braelon Allen (RB58 ADP vs. RB62 last week) will be Hall's handcuff, with Isaiah Davis (RB103 vs. RB98) looming. Allen was a trendy bargain two summers ago. Lukewarm production and injuries have lowered his value. He's price about right as a fringe late-round draft pick and leagues that draft 180+ players.
How much do we trust Garrett Wilson (WR16 ADP vs. WR15 last week)? Not coincidentally, he was the WR15 in points per game in 2025. Even at his advancing age, Geno is probably the second-best passer Wilson has had in the pros. I think Wilson will be a pretty safe top-20 pick if Geno is out there. Meanwhile, Adoani Mitchellis picking up steam with a WR72 ADP (vs. WR81 last week) and rookie Omar Cooper Jr. (WR63 ADP vs. WR61 last week) might cancel each other out. There's not enough heft in this offense to support two wideouts each week. Cooper is pricier and also more intriguing as an unknown commodity. I'm fading both for now.
One reason why is rookie TE Kenyon Sadiq, who the Jets lunged for in the first round despite (similarly) lunging for TE Mason Taylor in the second round last year. Both guys seemed to be too good to pass up. Taylor is still a work in progress. Sadiq will be ready to step up Week 1. Among non-top-12 TEs, Sadiq (TE21 ADP vs. TE18 last week) is a fascinating investment. Geno and Brock Bowers had a great connection in Vegas. Geno and Sadiq might not be as strong, but that doesn't diminish the fact that Sadiq might be a perennial top-10 fantasy TE. He simply needs top-10 attention, and that hinges on play calling and his chemistry with Geno (or with whoever's under center).
---
* Sign up for FF4W Preseason Top 350 Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 174: "David Montgomery and Woody Marks" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html