Five Biggest Questions:
1. How much of an impact will Fernando Mendoza have in Year 1?
2. Is Ashton Jeanty a safe elite / near-elite RB?
3. Who will be Jeanty's handcuff?
4. Who will be the #1 WR?
5. Are any other WRs draftable?
In the past 60 years, the Raiders have drafted four quarterbacks in the first round. Marc Wilson (1980) spent seven seasons playing behind -- and occasionally serving as the injury replacement to -- Jim Plunkett. When he retired in April 1991, Wilson had started only one Week 1 game in his career.
Almost exactly one year later, the Raiders passed on Brett Favre to draft Todd Marinovich, who famously was trained by his father since (pretty much) birth to become the "perfect" quarterback. Rampant drug use ended his NFL career after only eight starts.
The JaMarcus Russell story is now nearly 20 years old. The Raiders selected him #1 overall. Had they taken any number of other first rounders -- from Calvin Johnson to Adrian Peterson to Marshawn Lynch to Darrelle Revis to Joe Thomas to Patrick Willis -- the franchise's trajectory that next decade might have been moderately to dramatically different. Instead, Russell limped through 25 starts, and the Raiders had to wait nine years before finishing with a winning record.
For all their struggles, they are building something, and 2026 might signal a rebirth for a once proud franchise. Recent first rounders Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers form the nucleus of an offense that might be one great QB and one good #1 WR away from being "explosive." So #1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza could help take this team to the next level. Or at least, that's what this team needs to happen, because there's no plan B if Mendoza falters like so many Raiders who came before him.
It's really hard to size up rookie quarterbacks. The NFL moves faster than college football, the players are bigger and stronger, coaching staffs spend more time scouting opponents, etc. Mendoza has the misfortune of putting an entire franchise on his shoulders, whether or not he's ready, despite having one of the least-experienced and (on paper) lowest-upside WR corps in the league.
His steady QB28 ADP reflects the market's confidence that Kirk Cousins (QB35 ADP vs. QB33 last week) will take the reins early on, and/or that Mendoza will need time to acclimate once he's named the starter. If Cousins does open the season as the starter, I think they'll hand the ball to the rookie no later than Week 8 against the Jets. Those first seven games are (in order) against the Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, and Rams. I count three Super Bowl contenders, plus tough outs with L.A. and K.C. Maybe they start 2-5 or 1-6.
Either way, the Raiders have no great reasons to bench Mendoza all year. If they do, it would signal that he's simply not ready, which would be (of course) disastrous. And given the history of #1 overall QB draft picks, it wouldn't be unprecedented. Still, I'm betting on Mendoza earning 50%+ of the snaps, making him acceptably valued -- which is a polite way of saying he's a longshot to be fantasy relevant.
The offense will run through Jeanty and Bowers. No surprises here. Jeanty had nearly 400 touches in college in 2024, which I believe contributed to his relatively muted rookie numbers. He should take a meaningful step forward in Year 2 and deserves his steady RB5 ADP, as he's one 8-10 running backs with realistic top-5 potential.
Two of my 10 favorite rookie fantasy breakout candidates are on this team. One is backup RB Mike Washington Jr. (RB62 ADP vs. RB58 last week). The fourth-rounder has landed in a perfect spot with no clear competition for the handcuff role. Washington should be drafted in every league, and managers selecting Jeanty should reach at least two rounds early for the rookie.
Bowers recently leapfrogged Trey McBride to assume the TE1 ADP spot. Not much else to say. The more interesting story is a wide-open WR corps "led" by Tre Tucker (WR59 ADP vs. WR60 last week), followed closely by Jalen Nailor (WR61 vs. WR62). 2025 second-rounder Jack Bech (WR123 vs. WR109) and 2025 fourth-rounder Dont'e Thornton (unranked vs. WR107) are not expected to break through. While Tucker might have the inside track as the #1, I would be cautious about using up bench spots on WRs who are not near locks to finish in the top 50, and none of these guys are near locks to finish in the top 60.
I've leaving out one wide receiver -- one of my other favorite rookie breakout candidates. While he's only a sixth-rounder, Malik Benson (WR129 ADP vs. WR95 last week) passes the eye test as a seemingly NFL-ready pass-catcher. His plummeting value makes him no less valuable. Dynasty managers should snag him, and re-drafters should keep him on your radar if he shows well in camp.
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