Five Biggest Questions:
1. Who will win the QB battle, and will it matter?
2. Is Brian Robinson Jr. a must-draft handcuff?
3. Can Jahan Dotson or Olamide Zaccheaus find fantasy relevance?
4. Is rookie WR Zachariah Branch draftable?
5. Will Kyle Pitts remain a top-8 TE?
Yesterday focused on the Dolphins and whether Malik Willis can be their franchise QB. Now let's zoom in on their previous "franchise" QB. If Tua Tagovailoa beats out Michael Penix in camp, we won't know whether it means Atlanta believes in Tua . . . or simply doesn't believe in Penix and has to roll with Tua by default. This is the trickiness of an otherwise straightforward fantasy roster that features two unquestioned impact players (RB/WR), one questionably impactful TE, and not much else.
It could be argued that fantasy managers shouldn't care who wins the QB battle. Bijan Robinson (a steady RB2 ADP) has proven he can dominate regardless of who's under center. To a large extent, the same goes for Drake London (a steady WR7). Perhaps Tua has a higher ceiling because we've *seen* a higher ceiling during his brief heyday in Miami. Penix remains a work in progress. Both guys are former top-10 draft picks. Both of their careers are descending. Maybe one will reverse this trend.
That makes one of them a potentially huge fantasy bargain, because Tua's ADP is a steady QB31, and Penix's is QB34 (vs. QB32 last week). It's similar to last year, when the market didn't know whether Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones would win Indy's starting job. Both guys were ranked outside the top 30. We all could assume that one would be a bargain. The questions were "which one" and "how much." A healthy Jones made those answers clear.
In Superflex, I'm urging managers to draft both Tua and Penix. In re-draft, while I think Tua is the better bet on a per-game basis, there are plenty of safer bargain QBs to choose from outside the top 20.
In the backfield, Tyler Allgeier is out and Brian Robinson Jr. (RB53 ADP vs. RB51 last week) is in. That makes Robinson Jr. a must-draft, especially if you snag Bijan. Tyler Goodson is a distant #3, which suggests the handcuff role is Robinson Jr.'s to lose. That said, Robinson Jr.'s "must-draft" status should be tempered with the fact that he is merely an adequate handcuff with a top 16-20 ceiling if Bijan gets hurt. Robinson Jr. needs an uptick in targets to reach that next level.
Should managers invest in any wideouts beyond London? Jahan Dotson (WR101 ADP vs. WR106 last week) is a reclamation project on his third team in four years. A former first-round pick, he's solved his drop issues (none these past two seasons) but hasn't increased his value. QBs are averaging a 70.5 passer rating when targeting him. As a Best Ball flyer, I suppose you could do worse. But you could definitely do better.
The same goes for journeyman Olamide Zaccheaus (WR142 ADP vs. WR139 last week), who's played for three teams since leaving Atlanta after the 2022 season, and who's now (probably) wrapping up his career where it all started. He'll turn 29 next month. There are no compelling reasons to think he'll suddenly break through.
The biggest wild card wideout is trendy rookie Zachariah Branch, whose WR74 ADP is 11 spots better than last week. It's been seven years since the Falcons have had two top-30 fantasy WRs. What's interesting about Branch is that this team invested pretty high draft capital in him. Since 2005, Atlanta has drafted four wide receivers in the first 80 picks: Roddy White, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and now Branch.
At minimum, it's an interesting stat. But it also is a reminder that this receiving corps is wide open after London, and if Branch seizes the #2 role, he'll be one of the biggest rookie WR bargains. Since I'm planning to target him late in my deep-league draft, I hope he stays in the 70's. Unfortunately, there's a clear path for his ADP to jump into the top 55, which would make him a tougher bargain.
Finally, the enigmatic Kyle Pitts (a steady TE6 ADP) finally got paid this week, meaning he'll probably stick around for at least the next three years. As I've written and podcasted about, he excels when he's the alpha receiver, dating back to college. But when he has to share the field with an alpha, he frequently underwhelms. He was last year's TE5 in points per game because of a 45.6-point outburst with London sidelined. Take that away, and he's the TE16. Fair? Probably not. Pitts deserved all of those 45.6 points. But is it easily replicable in 2026? Probably not, making him a slight fade.
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