Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Malik Willis prove he's a franchise QB?
2. Is De'Von Achane a safe top-10 RB?
3. Is Jaylen Wright draftable?
4. Are any of the three rookie WRs draftable?
5. Are any other WRs/TEs draftable?
Ten years ago, QB Brock Osweiler signed a $72 million contract with the Texans, only a month after his Broncos went 5-2 in seven starts en route to a Super Bowl title. Compared to end-of-career Peyton Manning's abysmal play, Osweiler had looked pretty good. But at the time, that $72 million contract was reserved for franchise quarterbacks -- guys who could serve as long-term starters in offenses designed to produce.
We know what happened, and we seemingly know why. Osweiler's "generous" QB22 ADP that summer was built more on hype than on reality -- a small sample size of seven career starts in four seasons, despite being a former Day 2 draft pick entering his age-26 season.
Similarly, Miami recently handed Malik Willis $45 million guaranteed on a three-year, $67.5 million deal. Entering his age-27 season, Willis is also a former Day 2 draft pick with six career starts in four seasons. The Titans originally selected him after posting two straight AFC South titles. He was supposed to learn under capable journeyman Ryan Tannehill and then eventually take over. It didn't happen. In his third season, he landed in Green Bay and had two solid starts against teams that gave up the ninth-most and third-most points that year. He threw to five starter-caliber receivers: TE Tucker Kraft and WRs Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks.
Then last season in Week 17, he had the most dominant start of his career against a Baltimore defense surrendering the fourth-most passing yards. Willis cleared 30 fantasy points during most managers' championship week. Presumably, he was ready to take over another team's offense.
Except aside from a plus backfield, Miami lacks Green Bay's offensive talent. This franchise drafted three wideouts to pair with three questionably startable WRs and a TE reclamation project. Rookie WR Chris Bell is probably the most talented receiver on paper, but he's recovering from an ACL tear and might not return to his "old self" until 2027 at the earliest.
This entire passing attack is messy, confusing, sub-par, . . . insert your own adjective. Malik Washington's WR71 ADP leads the way, followed by Bell (WR87), rookie Caleb Douglas (WR120), Jalen Tolbert (WR121), and rookie Kevin Coleman Jr. (WR129). No one has a high ceiling, everyone has a basement-level floor, and much of what happens depends on whether Willis (QB21 ADP) is the real deal. If he is, then he would join De'Von Achane (RB10 ADP vs. RB7 a week ago) as the only draftable Dolphins in most leagues, with presumed handcuff Jaylen Wright (RB71) serving as a lottery ticket.
And if Willis struggles? Then this entire offense could break down. Miami is paying him too much to bench him this year. His legs should keep him relevant in Superflex, at minimum. But this team easily could go 4-13 or worse. Another lost season would threaten Achane's value during the fantasy playoffs.
Achane is the most important fantasy commodity, and also the riskiest because of his high fantasy draft position. Miami has increased his workload each year, pushing him past 300 in 2025. He has a lot of NFL wear and tear for a guy with a 5'9", 191-pound frame and a low-end college-touch total. Whether or not this franchise made a huge mistake re-upping with their star playmaker -- instead of trading high and rebuilding -- will be clear by season's end.
For now, I'm fading him with the expectation that durability concerns will increase in his fourth season. I'm also fading Willis in the belief that most quarterbacks in this offense would struggle, and that Willis's value doesn't yet factor in that reality.
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