Happy New Year to those who celebrate. The past two days I've discussed how the market (based on average draft position) might rank the top 15 QBs and top 25 RBs for 2026 beginning in May. These are predictions based on how I've seen the market -- millions of fantasy managers, aided by industry experts, news stories, and home-grown research -- settle on early preseason rankings.
Today let's dive into the top 30 WRs, with the understanding that a *lot* can change this offseason. So these projections are based on what we know, as well as what's likely to happen. As with QBs and RBs, I'm ignoring 2026 rookies; we'll have plenty of time to walk through their impact next summer.
Also keep in mind: there are a ton of very good WRs who aren't in my projections. For example, I think the market will cancel out Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, and DJ Moore, keeping all of them outside the top 30 ADP. The same goes for Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka. The same goes for Brian Thomas Jr, Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and (don't forget) Travis Hunter. I've also got Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr neck-and-neck, though neither will be viewed (in my opinion) as "safe enough" to be consensus top-30 WRs.
I've spent more time on this column than on QBs and RBs, and after reading this you might see why.
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Starting with the top 5 WRs in fantasy points per game thru Week 17, we've got (1) Puka Nacua, (2) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, (3) Ja'Marr Chase, (4) Rashee Rice, and (5) Amon-Ra St Brown. The top three seem pretty locked in. "Safe elite" is rare, and all three (barring injuries to them or their QBs) are safe elite. St Brown is safe near-elite, making him an easy bet for managers seeking reliably great weekly production.
What about Rice? When he's on the field, few are better fantasy assets. He's also been sidelined nearly two-thirds of the time these past two seasons. I expect his ADP to oscillate more than most during the summer as managers try to balance risks and rewards with someone capable of producing first-round value.
WRs 6-10 in fantasy points per game are (6) George Pickens, (7) Chris Olave, (8) Drake London, (9) Davante Adams, and (10) CeeDee Lamb. As shared on the podcast recently, if Pickens stays in Dallas, then I'm investing in whichever WR (him or CeeDee) is ranked lower. When both have been on the field since CeeDee's return from injury, they've averaged about the same fantasy points. In fact, Pickens has been slightly better, though CeeDee has been more targeted.
Olave is seemingly safe after largely dominating with inexperienced NFL QBs. London dominated even more at times, though Atlanta's QB situation looks a bit murkier. And Adams turned 33 last week. Still great, but I believe the market will inflate his true value. Adams has been fantastic in part because he leads the league with 14 receiving TDs. He's enduring the worst catch rate and the fewest yards-after-catch of his career. His ADP should be quite good, which would make him overvalued.
WRs 11-15 are (11) Nico Collins, (12) AJ Brown, (13) Malik Nabers, (14) Garrett Wilson, and (15) Tee Higgins. While we don't know where Brown will play next season (persistent rumors that he and Philly are on the outs), let's assume he's still no worse than the 1A wideout wherever he's playing. Collins is fairly safe despite middling QB play. Wilson actually looked fantastic in four of six full contests this year, so the question is whether the market will trust in his ability to (mostly) shine even if his QB is bottom-10. And Higgins is perennially undervalued, suggesting that his 2026 ADP will fall below his 2025 numbers.
WRs 16-20 are (16) Courtland Sutton, (17) Wan'Dale Robinson, (18) Tyreek Hill, (19) Zay Flowers, and (20) Christian Watson. Starting with Sutton and Flowers: both *should* continued to be viewed as their respective team's #1 WR. Robinsons did pretty well even when Nabers was healthy, so it'll be interesting to see where his ADP falls, since the market realistically will assume Nabers will return to alpha status. Tyreek is a complete crapshoot given his injury, questions about retirement, and the possibility that Miami cuts bait.
What about Watson? This is where I believe the market will be savvier than the stats. When healthy, Watson has looked like Jordan Love's 1A wideout. But Green Bay's receiver corps was decimated by injuries this year. They have five starter-caliber WRs and one starter-caliber TE (or two if you count former second-round draft pick Luke Musgrave). First-round rookie Matthew Golden presumably can't do any worse in Year 2. Although Watson had a good overall season, the market probably will factor in the impact of Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, and everyone else.
WRs 21-25 consist of (21) Jameson Williams, (22) Stefon Diggs, (23) Tetairoa McMillan, (24) Michael Wilson, and (25) DK Metcalf. Williams' and Metcalf's narrow ADP range seems pretty locked in. 32-year-old Diggs probably will be overvalued -- as in, ranked around how he performed this season, rather than ranked based on the likelihood that he won't realistically do better in 2026 alongside ascending WR teammates. And the market probably will assume McMillan's rookie production is his floor entering next season.
As for Wilson, what a fascinating dilemma for fantasy analysts, managers, . . . everyone. As subscribers know, I hyped him this past summer was one of fantasy's biggest WR bargains. His ADP was WR82 / overall-270. I had him at WR56 / overall-140. It was only a matter of time for the 2023 third-round pick. It took an emergency appendectomy for Marvin Harrison Jr for the fantasy universe to realize just how good Wilson is.
How will the market value both Arizona wideouts? Maybe it depends whether Jacoby Brissett is their starting QB. For now, I don't think either's ADP will be better than 25, and there are too many other de facto #1 WRs to consider in the top 26-30.
Finally, WRs 26-30 are (26) Michael Pittman, (27) Deebo Samuel, (28) Quentin Johnston, (29) Rome Odunze, and (30) Jaylen Waddle. There's room for only one ADP top-30 WR in Washington, and it's probably not Deebo. The same goes for Johnston and the Chargers. Odunze's post-midseason fade and injury, along with DJ Moore's multi-year fade, should make Luther Burden Chicago's highest-ranked WR. But they still have too many "good" pass-catchers to expect Burden in the top 30.
I think the market will weigh Pittman's solid track record more heavily than Burden's small sample size of fantasy success. Is that fair? maybe not. Burden is more intriguing, especially if Indy's QB situation is up in the air. But the market often prefers stable production vs the unknown, and Burden's value is still more "unknown" than "stable."
That leaves Waddle, who on paper should have been a weekly must-start WR in Tyreek's absence. Instead, his per-game production increased by only 0.3 points. He was primarily a disaster in the fantasy playoffs.
And yes, the fantasy playoffs matter. Many managers remember who let them down and who rose to the occasion when the games mattered most. Why did Brian Thomas Jr have a WR8 ADP in early September? Because after averaging only 14.0 points per game during the fantasy regular season (thru Week 14), he more than doubled it (28.2 per game) during the fantasy playoffs. *That* sticks with people, and it's why he got a bump this past summer that comparably productive WRs (across the full season) didn't.
Given all this, here's my prediction for the top 30 WR ADPs when they're first released around May, with the understanding that much depends on offseason roster moves. The following are in order, with Nacua projected as the preseason WR1:
Top 5: Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St Brown, CeeDee Lamb
Top 6-10: Chris Olave, Drake London, Nico Collins, Rashee Rice, AJ Brown
Top 11-15: George Pickens, Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
Top 16-20: Tee Higgins, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Courtland Sutton, Stefon Diggs
Top 21-25: Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, DeVonta Smith, Wan'Dale Robinson, Terry McLaurin
Top 26-30: Michael Pittman, Jauan Jennings, Ladd McConkey, DK Metcalf, Jaylen Waddle
Potential top 35 depending on roster moves and other factors (a pretty big list): Quentin Johnston (especially if the Chargers don't re-sign Kenan Allen), Christian Watson, Luther Burden, Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr, Deebo Samuel, and Alec Pierce. Also, one Bucs WR and one Jaguars WR -- but absolutely no clue at this point how the market will value them.
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* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 163: "Overperforming and Underperforming Fantasy WRs" -- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745