The past three days I've discussed how the market (based on average draft position) might rank the top 15 QBs, top 25 RBs, and top 30 WRs when ADPs are first released around May. These are predictions based on how I've seen the market -- millions of fantasy managers, aided by industry experts, news stories, and home-grown research -- settle on early preseason rankings.
Today let's dive into the top 20 TEs, with (as always) the understanding that a *lot* can change this offseason. So these projections are based on what we know, as well as what's likely to happen. As with the other positions, I'm ignoring 2026 rookies like near-consensus #1 Kenyon Sadiq. But of course, we'll need to be ready to shift focus when these rookies flood the market.
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Starting with the top 5 TEs in fantasy points per game thru Week 17, we've got (1) Trey McBride, (2) George Kittle, (3) Brock Bowers, (4) Tucker Kraft, and (5) Kyle Pitts. The top three includes the same players as last season. The only difference is McBride jumped way ahead of Kittle. As with RBs and WRs, these top three seem pretty locked in, though the market might be a little more wary of 32-year-old Kittle, who hasn't played a full season since 2018. Still, would managers feel safe with anyone else at the TE3 spot? If not, then Kittle's staying in the top three.
Kraft and Pitts are tough to gauge. The former is coming off a serious injury and benefited from a frequently depleted WR corps. The latter has been mostly unstartable these past three years unless the #1 WR is hurt. The market likely will trust Kraft more than Pitts, though Pitts' 2026 destination (whether in Atlanta or elsewhere) will be a key factor.
TEs 6-10 in fantasy points per game are (6) Dallas Goedert, (7) Sam LaPorta, (8) Travis Kelce, (9) Jake Ferguson, and (10) Harold Fannin. Kelce's retirement decision looms large, or at least *relatively* large considering how tough it is to place a value on a declining all-time great entering his age-37 season. Ferguson and LaPorta should stay in the top 10, more due to a lack of reliable top-10 TEs elsewhere. Same with the aging Goedert because of Philly's top-heavy, red-zone-friendly offense.
In my opinion, Fannin is the most intriguing fantasy TE entering 2026. Teammate David Njoku is entering free agency and will turn 30 in July. Fannin seems primed to build off of his breakout rookie campaign. Will the market agree? I think it will, especially given the many question marks surrounding most top-20 TEs. Fannin doesn't need a top-20 QB. He doesn't need to play in a top-20 offense. He simply needs volume. He's currently #3 in TE targets. That should be enough to push him pretty high in the rankings.
TEs 11-15 are (11) Tyler Warren, (12) Juwan Johnson, (13) Dalton Kincaid, (14) Hunter Henry, and (15) Dalton Schultz. Johnston, Henry, and Schultz are capable of weekly top-12 production, and they're also capable of huge letdowns. Kincaid would be in a similar boat if he weren't an in-his-prime (26-year-old) TE entering the fourth and final year of his guaranteed rookie contract. To me, Kincaid is the Trevor Lawrence of tight ends. Consistently great things probably will happen. We just don't know when.
As for Warren, so much upside, and also so much chaos in an Indy offense with no clear 2026 starting QB and a pretty crowded collection of talented WRs. I think the market will move him up for reasons similar to Fannin: Warren proved as a rookie that he can be a must-start TE. The question is consistency. Many managers will take a chance on a young player with massive upside versus a more established player with a capped ceiling.
Finally, TEs 16-20 are (16) Darren Waller, (17) Zach Ertz, (18) Colston Loveland, (19) Brenton Strange, and (20) Oronde Gadsden. (It's also worth noting that Mark Andrews is currently the TE24 and TJ Hockenson is the TE27, but more on that in a moment). Waller will be 34 in September and easily could return to retirement. Ertz will be 37 in November and is recovering from a torn ACL. For what might be obvious reasons, despite their relative success in 2025, I don't think their ADPs will be in the top 20.
Loveland and Gadsden are two rookies with bright futures. The former was this past year's #10 overall draft pick and has nowhere to go but up, exhibiting decent fantasy consistency out of the gate. The latter was much more hit-or-miss. Maybe the market will give Gadsden a big bump on the assumption a healthy o-line will re-ignite the Chargers' passing attack. But "what-if's" don't generally factor heavily in ADPs. For now, I've got both earning rankings slightly better than their first-year numbers.
What about Strange? The 2023 second-round pick carved out a solid role, in part due to Lawrence's ascendance. If the market believes Lawrence can come close to replicating his 2025 numbers, then Strange should leapfrog several comparable TE talents.
Given all this, here's my prediction for the top 20 TE ADPs when they're first released around May, with the understanding that much depends on offseason roster moves. It assumes what we know now is what will be reality then (e.g., assumes Kelce will return in 2026). The following are in order, with McBride projected as the preseason TE1:
Top 5: Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, George Kittle, Tucker Kraft, Dallas Goedert
Top 6-10: Harold Fannin, Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts, Sam LaPorta, Jake Ferguson
Top 11-15: Travis Kelce, Brenton Strange, Colston Loveland, Dalton Kincaid, Juwan Johnson
Top 16-20: Hunter Henry, Dalton Schultz, Oronde Gadsden, TJ Hockenson, Mark Andrews
As rough as it's been for Hockenson and Andrews, both are on teams that need to figure out how to fix their anemic passing attacks. Minnesota has the third-fewest pass attempts and second-fewest passing yards. For Baltimore, it's the fewest and fourth-fewest, respectively. I believe the market will see those names -- familiar, historically productive fantasy assets -- and bet on at least modest rebounds.
And with that, we're down to three more columns this season before shutting down until July. If you're competing for a title in Week 18, give a shout.
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