Congratulations if you won this week -- or coasted through your well-deserved bye week. You're knocking on the door of fantasy immortality. Let's finish strong.
Speaking of finishing strong, if you're newer to this page, I do these daily write-ups every day from early July to early January, wrapping up the day after the final regular season games. So there are 20 columns remaining.
FF4W is, and always will be, a completely free page. There's no Patreon subscription to access the "real" content. Some of you donate to receive preseason rankings, and others invest a dollar a day to text me fantasy questions anytime. But everyone's getting the same research simply by clicking on the blog.
So if this page is helpful to you, and if you want to drop some coins in the FF4W tip jar linked at the bottom, I'd be grateful.
---
Speaking of grateful (terrible transition), there's a lot to be grateful about re: fantasy TEs. Something fascinating is happening, and I want to take a moment to walk through it and try to make sense of it.
In 2020, TEs had 20+ points in a game 42 times. For example, Travis Kelce led the way with five 20+ point efforts, followed by Darren Waller with four. It was a continuation of a trend that started about a decade earlier, where TEs "frequently" scored 20+. The average number of 20+ point TE performances was 43 per year from 2009 thru 2020.
Of course, this was when the NFL played a 16-game schedule. We might assume, then, that 20+ point outings increased for TEs beginning with 2021's 17-game schedule.
But it didn't happen that way. In 2021, only 37 TEs had 20+ point game. It dropped to 34 in 2022, followed by 36 the next two seasons.
Interestingly, passing yardage decreased during those last four years. In 2021, teams averaged 228.3 passing yards per game, which was the second-lowest mark since 2011. Passing yardage dropped further in 2022 and 2023 (218.5 and 218.9, respectively), and then even further in 2024 (217.6). As it turns out, 217.6 passing yards per game was the lowest since 2008 -- the year before fantasy witnessed a bump in 20+ point TE outputs.
So . . . since more passing yards means more receiving yards, we can see how TEs benefited from more prolific passing numbers from 2009 to 2020. And we can also see how the yardage drop from 2021 to 2024 coincided with a drop in big single-game TE numbers.
That brings us to this season, where things are out of whack for the first time in decades. Last night Darren Waller became the 38th TE to score 20+ points. The league is on pace for 46 20+ point TE efforts, which would tie for the fourth most in fantasy history. While tight ends (aside from Trey McBride) aren't collectively crushing it compared to much of the past 20 years, there are more one-off dominant producers.
The reason more TEs are hitting 20+ is, I believe, because of more touchdowns, which are compensating for an overall decline in receiving yards. There were 79 tight end TDs in 2021, followed by 84 in 2022, 72 in 2023, and 73 in 2024. (I'm counting Taysom Hill's scores and 20+ point performances, because he's generally qualified as a fantasy TE.)
So far in 2025, there have been 76 TE touchdowns. They're on pace for 92. That's a pretty dramatic increase. Only two of this year's 20+ point scorers didn't have a TD. If none of the other TEs had scored in their contests, there would be only 10 20+ point TE performances this season. Touchdowns are still major difference-makers. But this year, they happen to be more common for tight ends.
We might speculate on the "why." I don't have any evidence pointing to a specific answer. But the numbers are fascinating, because they help explain why guys like AJ Barner and Pat Freiermuth are seemingly must-add / must-start TEs the week after their dominant outings . . . and why managers frequently are shocked and disappointed when they don't come close to replicating those numbers.
Weekly big TE points are almost more common than ever. But the downside is that we're more likely to swing and miss when we chase those points.
---