It's highly unusual for a multi-game slate to feature four *seemingly* unstartable fantasy QBs. Yeah, that's a bit of a hedge. I added "seemingly" because this is Week 17 in the NFL.
In Week 17 last year, Drew Lock collected 34.3 fantasy points to help the Giants snap a 10-game losing streak. It had been three years since he'd last posted 16+ fantasy points. New York scored their most points (45) since Week 8 of the 2015 season. They entered the contest averaging only 14.3 points per game and finished the season ranked 31st in scoring. The opposing Colts had been keeping opposing QBs to about 14 fantasy points per game.
In other words, the outcome was the culmination of a lot of things going differently than expected.
Today's matchups feature two underperforming starting QBs facing off in what *could* be a playoff preview (especially if the Jags collapse these final two games), and (assuming the doubtful Lamar Jackson sits) two backup QBs on teams limping to the finish line -- one clinching a postseason berth despite losing two straight, and the other clinging to hope after losing three of four.
In the opener, the Chargers are facing a tough Houston D at a rough time for fantasy managers who've already been burned by a passing attack that dominated early one, but which has wilted after the loss of multiple starting offensive linemen. Statistically, this is Justin Herbert is on pace for his best season since 2021. In reality, he didn't exceed 14.7 fantasy points from Week 10 thru Week 15. They crushed Dallas last weekend, but that was entirely expected. The Cowboys are giving up the most QB fantasy points. The Texans, on the other hand, are giving up the second-fewest.
Meanwhile, CJ Stroud still hasn't returned to his 2023 rookie goodness/greatness. Similar to Herbert, he's had one bright spot in his past five outings. But he hasn't surpassed 12.6 points in the other four, despite some soft matchups. The opposing Chargers are yielding the *third*-fewest QB fantasy points. Barring something unforeseen, this game will be decided largely by RBs and DSTs. We'll see if it plays out that way.
In the later game, is Malik Willis looked fantastic last week in relief of the injured Jordan Love. Entering the 2022 draft, he was a trendy breakout candidate who fell to the third round. Maybe he's rounding into form. Or maybe the opposing Ravens will be ready after spending this week preparing for the strong possibility of facing him.
The good news is that he'll have a pretty healthy supporting cast, with only Christian Watson questionable. The bad news for managers is (once again) at last mild confusion over which receivers will step up, as well as whether Josh Jacobs will handle a full workload with Green Bay pretty likely to open the playoffs on the road. (Yes, they have a chance to win the NFC North, but staying healthy might be more important.)
As for Baltimore, today's FF4W podcast is on Derrick Henry. Aside from him and Zay Flowers, it's a fantasy desert. Their second-highest-scoring fantasy WR is DeAndre Hopkins (WR86). Mark Andrews is the TE16. A loss today would make them 1-6 vs playoff-bound teams. If Tyler Huntley comes undone, and if Henry doesn't score, it will be a fantasy disaster. Both seem entirely possible, especially if Willis steps up and sustains drives.
Good luck today.
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