Merry Christmas to those who celebrate. Three huge games today featuring five teams that were expected to make the playoffs (based on preseason Vegas odds), plus the Cowboys. Instead, only the Broncos are guaranteed a spot in the postseason, and only the Lions have a (faint) chance at joining them. Everyone else is playing for pride . . . and really, a paycheck, because this is their job.
For today's opener, my thoughts on the Commanders haven't shifted much since last week. Everyone is a dart throw. The good news is that Dallas's D is surrendering the most QB fantasy points and the seventh-most RB fantasy points. But that doesn't make any Washington player remotely safe. Chris Rodriguez Jr and Jacory Croskey-Merritt are TD-dependent, as always. Dallas has given up 13 RB rushing scores. The odds that Rodriguez or JCM will run one in -- and make them fantasy startable -- is probably around 40%.
Josh Johnson is starting at QB. It's been nearly three years since he attempted 10+ passes. That was in the Niners-Eagles NFC Championship game when Brock Purdy was knocked out. Jimmy Garoppolo broke his foot two months earlier, and Trey Lance had been on injured reserve since Week 2. Johnson was the fourth-string QB. If you saw it, you know what happened. He looked like a rookie, not a 36-year-old journeyman. Maybe the lower stakes of a Week 17 contest between two non-playoff teams will bring out the best in him. But it's dicey.
Dallas's situation couldn't be more different. It's a streamlined passing attack where the biggest question is whether Jake Ferguson should be benched in all leagues. He averaged about 21 points per game when CeeDee Lamb was out. He's been barely startable in four of his last seven games.
On the ground, Javonte Williams is a full go. Had he been limited, Malik Davis would be an intriguing flier for desperate managers. Instead, I'd feel comfortable betting on an in-his-prime starter playing on an expiring contract. Williams' ceiling is simply too high to ignore.
Then there's the Vikings vs Lions. Aaron Jones should have the backfield (mostly) to himself. Detroit's giving up 4.5 YPC to opposing RBs. Max Brosmer is under center. We could see a lot of dump-offs. Justin Jefferson is still highly risky despite showing life last weekend. The same goes for Jordan Addison.
And TJ Hockenson will miss this one, which means the two managers still rostering him can finally drop him. Really, what a disaster. Two years ago he became the highest-paid TE with $42.5 million guaranteed on a four-year extension (2024 thru 2027). In these first two years of that extension, he's averaging 3.7 catches and 35.7 yards on only 5.2 targets per game. For context, this year he's averaging only one reception more than TE43 Ja'Tavion Sanders.
For Detroit, it's a tale of two teams: their offense is #2 in the league in scoring, and their defense is 10th-worst. Minnesota's giving up the second-fewest QB fantasy points and the fewest WR fantasy points. Managers pretty much have to start Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams (and of course Jahmyr Gibbs). But it's rough timing for guys who normally would have realistic 20+ point upside.
And in today's final contest, Denver will look to avenge Sunday's loss to the high-flying Jaguars. Incredibly, Courtland Sutton is the overall WR9, while Bo Nix is the QB10. Regarding Nix, his numbers are almost identical to last year's, except he's not running as much. I discuss that trend earlier this season, and it's continued, as he's averaging only 9.3 yards in his last six games. Last year he averaged 25.3 yards.
Meanwhile, RJ Harvey has cracked 21 points in three of his last four games, and Troy Franklin could/should get a bump with Pat Bryant sidelined.
On the other side of the ball, I read yesterday that the Chiefs haven't been this much of a home underdog (13 points) since October 3, 1977. Interestingly, one day earlier MLB's Dusty Baker and Glenn Burke shared the first high-five in recorded history.
(Maybe) KC's starting quarterback at that time, Mike Livingston, watched that baseball game and was inspired to try it himself. Despite losing to the Raiders on Monday Night Football, the Chiefs covered the spread. "That's good enough," Mike (maybe) said. "Let's keep the high-five alive," and while walking off the field, he (maybe) extended his hand to anyone who wanted to hit it.
(Maybe) only one player accepted the awkward offer: his #1 receiver, Walter White. One of the most productive tight ends of his era, White had two TDs that night. This was his third year playing with Livingston. They'd had great on-field chemistry ever since Livingston had replaced legendary 40-year-old Len Dawson in the 1975 season. But (maybe) White also was upset about losing. So (maybe) he reared back and unloaded a hand slap that was half supportive of his QB, and half angry about the defeat.
(Maybe) a 10-year-old named Vince Gilligan was in the stands that night and watched in awe as those two KC teammates walked off the field and smashed their hands together with violence and love. "What chemistry," he (maybe) said to himself. "Chemistry . . . chemistry . . ." Years later, he created a TV show about a chemistry teacher who creates a violent alter ego out of some awkward love for his family. Gilligan (maybe) names the main character after the KC tight end who inspired him, and (maybe) names Walter's do-it-all fixer / investigator / tough guy "Mike" after the toughest QB Vince ever saw play. But (maybe) he changed the last name to Ehrmantraut, because that sounds tougher than Livingston.
Anyway, the Chiefs are terrible. You know what to do.
Good luck today.
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