In Week 16 last year, the Sam-Darnold-led Vikings defeated the Seahawks on a late-fourth-quarter TD throw from Darnold to Justin Jefferson. Seattle's loss might have cost them a playoff berth. (They beat a bunch of Rams backups in Week 18 that otherwise would've been starters had the game mattered.)
Interestingly, that was the last Darnold-to-Jefferson TD connection of the season. (Jefferson has scored only twice since then.) The all-world WR posted a 103-1,533-10 receiving line while serving as Darnold's unquestioned alpha receiver.
One year later, Darnold's all-world WR teammate is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who's posting a nearly identical 96-1,541-9 line. While we'll never know for sure, we might wonder (or even assume) that if Darnold had stayed in Minnesota, and if JJ McCarthy had ended up in Seattle, Jefferson would still be cruising, while fantasy managers would be scratching their heads wondering "what happened to Smith-Njigba?"
Darnold's QB rating when targeting Jefferson last year was a phenomenal 118.7. This year when targeting JSN, it's an insane 126.5. For context, that's better than Joe Burrow's rating when targeting Ja'Marr Chase last year. It's even better than Matthew Stafford's rating when targeting Cooper Kupp in 2021, when Kupp broke the record for most WR fantasy points in a season.
This is why when we draft WRs, we're also indirectly drafting their QB. Since I strongly believed Sam Darnold's QB27 preseason ADP was way too low, I also believed JSN's WR14 ADP was too low. No other receiver could rival the ascending JSN's alpha-ness. It was a terrific match -- a nearly ideal situation for both players, and by extension, both players' fantasy values.
This pair is at the center of one of tonight's most fascinating storylines. Seattle's only loss in their past eight games was to the Rams, when Darnold threw four interceptions. That was on the road. Now they're on home turf. Both teams are 11-3. The winner will be a frontrunner for the #1 overall seed and a first-round bye. The loser will be clawing for a #5 seed.
I expect a different outcome this time. Seattle's defense has clamped down recently, giving up only 7.42 QB fantasy points per game in the past four weeks. Davante Adams is doubtful, meaning L.A. probably won't have the guy who leads the NFL in red zone targets (32) and receiving TDs (14).
Of course Puka Nacua is a weekly must-start. But what about Kyren Williams and even Blake Corum? The Seahawks are yielding only 3.5 yards per carry to opposing RBs and the second-fewest RB rushing scores (four). Volume favors Williams and Corum. Yardage doesn't. Their startability might come down to whether one or both scores.
Meanwhile, the Rams D is giving up the *fewest* RB rushing scores (three). Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are at risk of canceling each other out. Walke consistently has the usage edge, while Charbonnet is earning more scoring opportunities. In fact, Charbonnet has 20 carries inside the opposing 10-yard line; Walker has only 10. It's a painful situation for playoff managers.
And what about Kupp and Rashid Shaheed? Earlier this season against his former team, Kupp had a meek 3-23-0 receiving line on seven targets. Last week he had more than three catches for the first time since Week 5. But Shaheed has been heating up after several weeks acclimating to the new offense. I believe this team understands that it needs more from this passing attack -- that it can't just be JSN or bust. Shaheed has the inside track for streamability. But Kupp still looms.
Final score prediction: Seahawks win 23-19. Leave your prediction below. This is the final TNF game of the season, so make sure you give it your all.
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