When NFL personnel created the 2025 schedule, today's opening contest was supposed to be a marquee event -- a long-awaited rematch of last year's NFC Championship game between the defending Super Bowl champions and an ascending franchise with one of the best young quarterbacks in the league.
Instead, Washington is on a glide path to a 4-13 season, which would mark their fifth time with 12+ losses in their past 13 seasons. This is the same franchise that had zero 12+ loss campaigns from 1962 thru 1992. Granted, about half of those seasons consisted of only 14 games. But still, aside from last year's blip, they haven't exceeded 10 wins since winning their most recent title 34 years ago.
The problems started early on when they unloaded Brian Robinson Jr for a sixth-round pick over the summer. It was clearly a sign they had more than enough RBs. But a high-probability inconsequential draft pick for a pretty durable bell cow with a high-end broken-tackle rate and good hands? Understandable for a rebuilding team. Not at all understandable for a Super Bowl contender (seventh-best preseason odds) with a backfield consisting of 30-year-old fading star Austin Ekeler and a largely unproven supporting cast.
Yes, Jacory Croskey-Merritt was supposed to step up, and to some degree he has (aside from two lost fumbles that slowed his momentum). He and Chris Rodriguez Jr have helped Washington generate the sixth-most yards-per-carry (4.8).
Maybe a fully healthy unit could have delivered another playoff bid. But Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin have missed significant time. Ekeler was knocked out for the year in Week 2. Zach Ertz recently landed on injured reserve. Offseason acquisition Deebo Samuel wasn't the upgrade this team envisioned, though from a fantasy perspective he's been serviceable on an injury-riddled team.
Betting on any Commanders today in fantasy means hoping they break through against a defense allowing the eighth-fewest QB points, seventh-fewest WR points, and third-fewest TE points. A negative game script might make JCM and Rodriguez unstartable. They're all tough bets, though managers with thin options need to hope Marcus Mariota throws 50 times like he did against Denver. That's the surest way to generate fantasy receiver relevance.
For the Eagles, it's the same as always: Jalen Hurts is a must-start, Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown are startable because most managers don't have higher-upside options, DeVonta Smith is a start-and-hope WR, and Dallas Goedert . . . well, he could just as easily get three targets as he could get 10. Like Smith and even Barkley, he's a good play if you need a good ceiling. The key is finding the end zone, which is doable with Washington surrendering the seventh-most points.
The later game is fascinatingly difficult. (And yes, I checked to make sure "fascinatingly" is a word.) Injuries are transforming Bears' and Packers' fantasy values at the best or worst possible time, depending on your roster. With Luther Burden and Rome Odunze sidelined, we might witness DJ Moore's third 20+ point performance in his last five games. Before that, he'd surpassed 13 points only once in 10 games.
I talked about Moore in the summer of 2024 when his ADP was too aggressive in Year 2 with the Bears. The year before, his top WR competition was Darnell Mooney and Tyler Scott. He had always been the unquestioned alpha. When guys accustomed to being #1 are no longer #1, it usually means fewer targets and (at times) frustration at not being utilized more. Sometimes squeaky wheels like AJ Brown get fed. Other times there's little need. Tonight, there's plenty of need with WRs Olamide Zaccheaus and Devin Duvernay competing for scraps behind Moore and TEs Colston Loveland and (quite possibly) Cole Kmet.
The opposing Packers have been pretty solid against the run. But with Micah Parsons out for the year, there's an opening for catch-friendly D'Andre Swift as well as (if Swift is limited) Kyle Monangai. Green Bay narrowly beat them a couple weeks ago, but Swift and Monangai both ran well. I'm expecting 28+ backfield touches rather than putting the game too much in Caleb Williams' hands/arm.
The Packers have their own injury issues, and it's more complicated for fantasy managers. Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are questionable and likely to play. This five-man WR corps can be hard to navigate. Watson has been the most healthy/reliable. Beyond him, it's a crapshoot. Case in point: Romeo Doubs had the second-most WR snaps against the Bears in Week 14, but also had zero catches on two targets. The good news is that Chicago's yielding the seventh-most WR fantasy points.
As for their backfield, Josh Jacobs is questionable. Might be worse for a lot of managers if he "gives it a go" today. Will he get 20+ touches or closer to 10-12? Would that make Emmanuel Wilson a streamer? Best-case scenarios always include clarity. We want to know what to expect. The Bears' anticipated producers are more streamlined. The Packers' fantasy-relevant players might require a little more guessing.
Good luck today.
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