This marks the season's first Thursday Night Football game featuring one eliminated team. Entering Week 1, Atlanta's (Vegas) over/under odds for wins was 8.5. Tampa Bay's was 9.5. Both were supposed to compete for the NFC South title.
Instead, the Falcons have crashed after a 3-2 start that looked both promising and unsustainable. The turning point came against the 49ers in Week 6, when they trailed 13-10 midway through the fourth quarter. Equipped with an elite young running back, they couldn't convert on 3rd-and-1 or 4th-and-1 from San Francisco's 35-yard line. San Francisco marched downfield for the score, and that was that.
Or maybe the turning point came in the 2024 offseason, when Atlanta inexplicably handed soon-to-be 36-year-old Kirk Cousins -- who had recently torn his Achilles -- $90 million guaranteed. Then just as inexplicably, they burned their #8 overall draft pick on 24-year-old Michael Penix. This combination of moves was probably one of the most expensive NFL hedges in decades, and has proved to be one of the most costly for a franchise that hasn't had a winning season since 2017, and which hasn't truly recovered from the most disastrous Super Bowl collapse in league history in February 2017.
As they play out of the clock on another lost campaign, the Falcons have one fantasy starter in Bijan Robinson. Tyler Allgeier remains one of the better TD-dependent backups -- good enough for desperate managers and scary for everyone else. And if the questionable Kyle Pitts has to sit, there is no one left. Darnell Mooney has a dreadful 41% catch rate, thanks in part to a career-worst drop rate (including one flub in the end zone last weekend). David Sills has only 21 career receptions and an awful drop rate, which somehow makes him tonight's #2 WR. Elsewhere, Dylan Drummond has seven career catches and Deven Thompkins has 29.
It's the worst WR situation in fantasy and probably one of the worst of the past decade. Maybe someone will break through. But who wants to make wild guesses in the fantasy playoffs?
Robinson is seemingly the only sure-fire start, and even *he* isn't entirely trustworthy given what could be a negative script in a meaningless game. He's coming off a 22-touch performance on Sunday and could easily be held to 16 touches and 11 fantasy points. You start him and hope he gets enough first-half receptions to help you sleep easier.
For the Bucs, it's the opposite challenge: Who will step up in an increasingly crowded offense? Less than three weeks ago, Tez Johnson and Sean Tucker were entirely fantasy relevant. Now with the expected return of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan, Baker Mayfield has five starter-caliber WRs to choose from. We might assume Chris Godwin is the de facto #1 with Evans reacclimating, McMillan's role uncertain, and Emeka Egbuka struggling.
But it seems more complicated than that. For most of the last seven years, Evans and Godwin have been one of fantasy's best WR duos. Now it's entirely conceivable that someone else will be the #1 WR in any given week. Managers have to hope this Baker Mayfield-led attack can break through against a still pretty decent Atlanta pass defense.
On the ground, I've discussed Bucky Irving on recent podcasts, with a focus on whether he's still the bell cow. His inefficiency, combined with steady contributions from Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, make Irving a riskier play than it might seem. Bucky's expert-consensus Week 15 ranking on FantasyPros is RB9. I think it should be closer to 20 with so many mouths to feed. If he doesn't produce solid numbers by halftime, realistically he could be phased down or even out if the Bucs are comfortably ahead.
Final score prediction: Tampa Bay wins 33-8. Leave your prediction below, and good luck if you have anyone going tonight.
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