In the final game of the 2021 season -- the first Week 18 in NFL history -- the seemingly playoff-bound Colts lost to the 2-14 Jaguars, eliminating Indy from postseason contention. Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman led the Colts' offense. Somehow, they were outdone by Jacksonville's backfield comprised of Ryquell Armstead and Dare Ogunbowale, and a receiver corps consisting of 31-year-old Marvin Jones, Laquon Treadwell, and Laviska Shenault.
In other words, it was a shocker.
The Colts haven't been to the playoffs since 2020, when Taylor, Pittman, and Philip Rivers -- in what was assumed to be his final NFL campaign -- helped lead them to an 11-6 record. This came only one year after Andrew Luck's preseason retirement. The franchise was both rebuilding and ascending. They needed a great quarterback to reach the next level.
For a while this season, Daniel Jones appeared to be their best QB since Luck. But he started cooling off a bit in mid-November, and in early December he was knocked out for the year. They were 8-2 exiting their Week 11 bye. Then they blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead against the Chiefs, kicking off their current five-game losing streak.
And next week's opponent is the franchise that started this dry spell: the Jaguars. If you're competing in Week 17, last night's defeat might make Taylor, Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Tyler Warren (and Josh Downs in deep leagues) much riskier. Will any of them sit due to injuries they played through when the stakes were high, but which no longer merit the risk? If Riley Leonard replaces Rivers (giving the coaching staff another look at their rookie ahead of 2026), could this offense stall?
Additionally, while Taylor is unquestionably elite, he's slowed considerably during this losing streak, averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. He now has 320+ touches in back-to-back years. If he plays, he might not get his full workload. And with Jacksonville yielding the league's second-fewest RB fantasy points, there's a risk that an active Taylor could (for example) rush 10 times for 45 scoreless yards and catch a couple balls before exiting. Suddenly this elite RB isn't as dependable as managers would have expected six weeks ago.
Meanwhile, San Francisco has a shot at the #1 seed and a first-round bye. First they need to win their final two games. Their injuries keep piling up, with George Kittle presumably questionable (at the moment) for Week 17 due to an ankle injury. Ricky Pearsall also might be sidelined. Jake Tonges might be the most popular TE waiver add tomorrow.
Brock Purdy entered Week 14 with nine passing TDs and seven interceptions. He'll thrown for eight scores and only one interception these past two games. The timing couldn't be better for managers who bet on the preseason top-10 fantasy QB (based on ADP), and who waited patiently for him to turn things around.
Finally, Christian McCaffrey realistically could hit 450+ touches if the Niners win at least one playoff game. It would mark his third 400+ touch campaign. The first two resulted in significant injuries the following season. Managers surely love everything he's doing. And there will be plenty of time next summer to walk through why he's overvalued.
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