Since their Week 10 bye, the Cowboys are 3-0 with victories over last season's Super Bowl participants, elevating their record to 6-5-1 and positioning them for a surprising late-season playoff push.
Since their Week 8 bye, the Lions are 2-3 with victories over the 3-9 Commanders and 2-11 Giants and a brutal home loss to the 4-8 Vikings. A defeat tonight would put them behind Dallas and set up nearly must-win road games against the Rams and Bears just to eke into the postseason.
Exacerbating Detroit's situation is a rash of offensive injuries, forcing them to roll with their fourth-string tight end and (if the very questionable Amon-Ra St. Brown sits) a Jameson Williams-heavy WR corps that also features sparingly used rookie Isaac TeSlaa and longtime tertiary receiver Tom Kennedy.
Maybe they'll pound the ball on the ground against a Dallas D yielding 4.6 yards per RB carry. Or maybe they'll try to dominate through the air against a defense surrendering the most QB fantasy points per game, as well as the most WR fantasy points per game. The former would put David Montgomery in a streaming-friendly position. The latter would open the door for TeSlaa and/or Kennedy.
Today's podcast episode zooms in on TeSlaa, who the Lions drafted with an early third-round pick, presumably to serve as their #6 offensive option for the foreseeable future. Tonight he could be the #4 or even #3 option -- again, if St. Brown can't play.
The Cowboys have a more predictable offense, which is obviously great for managers rostering Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and/or Jake Ferguson. And it's terrible if you're facing any/most of them. In particular, Detroit's defense is giving up the fourth-most QB fantasy points per game and the fourth-most WR fantasy points per game. Dallas's aerial assets seem primed for big performances.
Williams is a little more intriguing. The Lions are yielding the fewest RB fantasy points per game on a solid 4.0 RB yards per carry and the third-fewest RB touchdowns. In Williams' first seven games, he netted 5.3 YPC. But he's averaged just under 4.2 YPC in the five games since. His targets are also down -- from 4.6 per game in those first seven contests to 2.0 per game these past five contests. Although the trend line could shift at any time, the matchup couldn't be must worse for this seemingly must-start RB.
Final score prediction: Lions win 37-32. Leave your pick below, and good luck if you have a fantasy stake in tonight's matchup.
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