Right before last night's final snap, Caleb Williams and DJ Moore were fantasy busts. They needed only one play to be productive. I recommended both and felt bad about it for the first 65 game minutes. It was a pair of poor recommendations. Then suddenly they were both "good" recommendations." That's the fine line between skill and luck . . . between disappointment and relief.
If you make it to Week 17 with any Packers on your roster, things have gotten a little more dicey and/or interesting. A huge home matchup next week against the Ravens might feature Malik Willis and Emanuel Wilson. If not, can we trust Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs, despite the favorable matchup?
The first game went largely as expected: the Commanders struggled to move the ball, while each of Philly's five fantasy-relevant players came through. Chris Rodriguez Jr was the most effective Washington player and has now scored in five of his last eight games. Still, he and Jacory Croskey-Merritt epitomize TD dependency. Entering yesterday, Washington targeted its RBs less than every other team *except* the Seahawks. Low targets + low-scoring team = weekly fantasy dart throw.
Today is filled with fantasy wild cards. Seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers has a dream matchup for his NFL debut. Does this mean we should lean into Jaylen Waddle and Darren Waller? Or will Ewers dump off to his RBs a dozen or more times, focusing more on playing mistake-free football than on downfield risk-taking?
With Rashee Rice sidelined and Gardner Minshew under center, can Xavier Worthy get back on track? I've discussed how effective he's been when Rice sits, and how unstartable he is when Rice is on the field.
The Vikings' plane had mechanical issues last night and had to turn around. So the team reportedly had to take a much later flight. If they're a bit "off" today, that could be one reason why.
And what will Philip Rivers do in his second game back? I'm not expecting much, instead eyeing a dominant Jonathan Taylor to carry this offense after four straight relatively quiet performances. Those four games were against two of the four stingiest defenses versus fantasy RBs (Jaguars and Chiefs), the team yielding the fewest yards per carry (Seahawks), and the team giving up the fewest points per game (Texans). There's a flow to fantasy, and I believe the flow favors Taylor against a more beatable defense and with a playoff bid on the line.
Of course, managers are starting Taylor regardless. But the ripple effect of huge Taylor numbers is (probably) less production for every other Colt.
Good luck today.
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