In the summer of 2024 I sent subscribers a research report I put together on the relationship between high-snap RBs and next-season RB fantasy production. It included a list of 2023's highest-snap-count RBs and my recommendations on whether to buy or fade each one at their ADPs. My lowest-risk ("buy") RBs generally performed as expected or better (again, based on ADP). My mid-risk RBs split between underperforming and outperforming. And my high-risk RBs ("fade") were, with one exception, massive underperformers.
This past summer I updated the report with the latest results from 2024 and once again included recommendations to subscribers. Here's one really interesting angle on the results through Week 13:
There were 20 RBs last year with 600+ offensive snaps during the regular season and playoffs, ranging from 609 to 1,020. Seven of them were at least 27 years old -- the closed thing I've found to the start of "middle age" for running backs. These RBs were Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, and James Conner.
At first glance, you might notice something fascinating about this group. All seven are moderately-to-significantly underperforming compared to ADP:
-- Barkley: RB2 ADP, currently RB13
-- Jones: RB25 ADP, currently RB46
-- Henry: RB5 ADP, currently RB12
-- Pollard: RB26 ADP, currently RB32
-- Mixon: RB35 ADP, hasn't played
-- Kamara: RB15 ADP, currently RB35
-- Conner: RB20 ADP, currently RB70, out for season
I had tagged Pollard and Kamara as moderate-risk investments. Essentially, their production could go either way, with Pollard (a "5" on a 1-to-10 risk scale) slightly safer than Kamara ("6"). Everyone else was a "7" or above. So if you had incorporated this report into your draft strategy, you probably wouldn't have drafted Barkley, Jones, Henry, Mixon, or Conner, and you might have passed on the slight-risk Kamara.
This year there are two middle-age RBs on pace for very high snaps: Barkley (820-snap pace, plus the playoffs if applicable) and Christian McCaffrey (1,020-snap pace, plus the playoffs if applicable). I have a spreadsheet that includes every 600+ snap RB since 2012 -- generally considered the first year this statistic was officially tracked. In that span, CMC has the all-time record with 1,039. The average next-season statistical regression for 1,000+ snap RBs is 47%.
When you see Barkley and CMC are massive fades in next summer's FF4W rankings, you'll know why.
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