Tomorrow is the most important football day for many of us. If things break right, I could snag the #3 seed. If things break wrong, I could finish 7th and out of the playoffs. My two best WRs are on bye. Another weekly starter is out. I'm seriously contemplating starting two TEs, because my options are limited. Oh, and I'm stuck with Lamar Jackson, for better or worse.
Some of this might sound semi-familiar to you. If not, congratulations on crushing the season so far.
As always, here's who I think is the biggest fantasy pressure point for each remaining Week 14 team:
Ravens -- Is Lamar Jackson benchable going forward? What a strange season in Baltimore.
Steelers -- DK Metcalf has only one catch more than Kenneth Gainwell. Last year Metcalf had 50 more catches than Gainwell.
Jaguars -- Since October 12th, Brian Thomas Jr's targets have dropped from 10 to seven to five to three. Maybe even more damningly, Thomas has averaged 9.7 targets in the Jags' three losses when he's been active, but only 5.8 targets in Jacksonville's six wins when he's been active. There might not be any urgency to get him more involved.
Colts -- Michael Pittman Jr has had single-digit fantasy points in four of his five scoreless games. For Josh Downs, it's six of eight scoreless games. Both seem almost entirely TD-dependent.
Buccaneers -- Talked about this on a recent podcast episode: while Bucky Irving returned to his bell cow role last weekend, he's still not running very efficiently and isn't a great bet to carry heavy loads the rest of the year.
Saints -- Will Devin Neal continue to get enough run (including all-important targets) to remain on fantasy radars?
Jets -- Adonai Mitchell vs John Metchie.
Dolphins -- It's been almost exactly one year since Jaylen Waddle had more than six catches, which is all the more strange given Tua Tagovailoa's lack of dependable targets.
Vikings -- The disaster (probably) will continue. Surely someone will be startable. But how many managers want to guess?
Commanders -- Is Terry McLaurin a safe weekly starter?
Browns -- Are Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman droppable in most leagues? Or is either one a squeaky enough wheel to get more looks?
Titans -- Gunnar Helm has 16 catches in his last three games. Although scoring seems like a weekly longshot, Cam Ward is feeding him enough to be at least a fantasy TE spot starter. It helps that Ward's sporting a 101.7 QB rating when targeting Helm versus an overall 75.2 QB rating.
Bills -- Keon Coleman apparently is out of the doghouse. Thus far, he's been too inconsistent to stream even in deep leagues, but he's too talented to be completely ignored.
Bengals -- Week 1 was the last time Joe Burrow played a full game with both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Interestingly, last year Chase averaged 11% more fantasy points per game with Higgins on the field versus when Higgins was inactive.
Falcons -- Kyle Pitts is averaging 9.1 fantasy points when Drake London is active versus 11.5 points when he's not. Either way, he's not earning the scoring opportunities needed for streamable tight ends, as he's only 32nd in TE red-zone targets and only 42nd in TE red-zone catches.
Seahawks -- Kenneth Walker is the overall RB22, while the somewhat lesser-used, TD-dependent Zach Charbonnet is the RB33. In fact, if their touchdown totals were flipped, Walker would be the RB17, while Charbonnet would be the RB38.
Raiders -- Geno Smith's QB rating is a pedestrian 84.0. When targeting Tre Tucker, it's more than 25 points higher. Tucker's Week 3 breakout might have a lot to do with that. But overall, Tucker has played better than his numbers suggest.
Broncos -- RJ Harvey has zero broken tackles on 74 rushing attempts and has exceeded 3.0 yards per carry only twice since Week 2. I might be forced to start him in my league, but I'm not at all confident that he can crack nine points without scoring.
Cardinals -- Michael Wilson gets at least one more week to make things incredibly uncomfortable for those (like me) rostering Marvin Harrison Jr.
Rams -- Head coach Sean McVay reportedly wants to keep Kyren Williams "fresh" for the playoffs. That could be viewed as coach-speak. But in actuality, this team has already been keeping Williams "fresh" most of the season. Last year he had 15+ carries in 14 of 16 contests. This year he's hit 15+ carries only once in his last nine games, resulting in a 22% drop in touches per game.
Packers -- As always, who will be the #1 WR? On Thanksgiving it didn't matter. Most weeks, it definitely will.
Bears -- Rome Odunze caught 55.4% of his September/October targets. Since then he's reeled in only 38.2%. Now he's out for Week 14. A Luther Burden breakout could make it tough for even deep-league managers to start Odunze whenever he returns.
Chiefs -- Xavier Worthy remains a really interesting (or frustrating if he's on your team) fantasy pressure point. Discounting Week 4 last season when Rashee Rice played only four offensive snaps, Worthy hasn't scored in Rice's previous eight games. Conversely, when Rice has been out, Worthy has scored in seven of those 16 games.
Texans -- CJ Stroud has only 21 TD passes and 14 interceptions in his previous 20 games.
Chargers -- If Omarion Hampton returns, will he be the bell cow, or will Kimani Vidal maintain 1B value?
Eagles -- Saquon Barkley has topped 60 rushing yards only twice since Week 3. I have to believe we'll eventually see more of Tank Bigsby or AJ Dillon -- not as a Barkley demotion, but as a way to jump-start a frequently stalled running game.