On the FF4W podcast a month ago, I discussed a statistical oddity that helped explain why many elite and near-elite preseason RBs were fairly dependable compared to, say, many elite and near-elite preseaosn WRs. At that time, no preseason top-10 RB (based on ADP) had missed a game. And yet, many of the top 11-to-20 preseason RBs either had missed several games or were significantly underperforming.
And now with four weeks remaining, those top 10 ADP running backs have combined to miss only one game: Josh Jacobs in Week 12. Just as strangely, nearly all of those top 10 preseason RBs are currently top 14 in fantasy points. RB1 ADP Bijan Robinson is #5 in scoring. Saquon Barkley (RB2 ADP) is #12. The next best ADPs (Jahmyr Gibbs and Christian McCaffrey) are #3 and #1 in RB scoring, respectively. The next best ADPs after that (Derrick Henry and Ashton Jeanty) are #11 and #14 in RB scoring, respectively.
De'Von Achane (RB7 ADP vs #4 RB scorer), Jacobs (RB8 ADP vs #8 RB scorer), and Jonathan Taylor (RB9 ADP vs #2 RB scorer) are outperforming their preseason values based on points per game. Chase Brown (RB10 ADP) has rebounded nicely after a slow start and is now the #13 RB scorer.
Among the RB11-20 ADP group, only James Cook and Kyren Williams are exceeding market expectations. The rest have dealt with serious injuries and/or sizable statistical drop-offs.
Because this is such a rarity, we might expect many top 10 RBs next summer to be overvalued. Their ADPs will be based largely on this year's production and durability. The assumption will be "they frequently dominated last year, so they can do it again." But usually about half of the preseason top 10 RBs fall noticeably short of expectations.
Statistical outliers rarely foreshadow new norms.
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Meanwhile, the QB-desperate Colts have signed Philip Rivers. This is uncharted territory: a legendary quarterback returning after a nearly five-year absence. And not just any quarterback. Rivers just turned 44 years old and frequently struggled in his two most recent NFL campaigns.
And yet, he's thrown for 4,000+ yards in 12 of his last 13 seasons. If he starts, his top receivers would be Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman Jr, Josh Downs, and Tyler Warren. The last time we saw him on the field (also in Indy), his two top targets were post-prime TY Hilton and ceiling-capped Zach Pascal. His three-headed TE corps featured Mo Alie-Cox, Trey Burton, and post-prime Jack Doyle.
If he starts, there would be so many good reasons to ignore him in fantasy, including a tough road matchup against Seattle, as well as valid questions concerning his conditioning and the timing of his passes to starting receivers who, besides Pittman, he's never played with.
Of course, this Colts team helped Daniel Jones generate the best passing numbers of his career, compiling a 100.2 QB rating, which was about 15 points above his career average entering this season. So it's reasonable to wonder if Rivers can play the worst football of his career and still produce adequate numbers in a loaded offense.
What do you think? Could Rivers be serviceable? Or will this all end poorly?
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