Drake Maye is the QB5 in fantasy points per game, within earshot of QB3. His preseason ADP was QB16. How did most managers -- including me -- completely overlook his realistic Year 2 potential?
Probably for similar reasons that most managers -- again, including me -- overlooked Patrick Mahomes' Year 2 potential in 2018. He entered that season with a QB15 ADP based on hype and one uneventful 2017 start in which he threw primarily to backups (Albert Wilson was his primary receiver). His QB1 performance the following season helped catapult many managers to the title.
People overlooked Maye for similar reasons people -- again, including me -- overlooked Lamar Jackson's Year 2 potential in 2019. His top wideouts were rookie Marquise Brown, along with journeymen Willie Snead and Seth Roberts. He had two mostly unproven second-year TEs in Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews. Despite a QB15 ADP, Jackson finished as the QB1.
An FF4W podcast episode this summer went deeper on this subject: It's hard to predict greatness for players who've never been "great." What are the signs of an under-the-radar player's imminent breakout campaign? I discussed these signs while highlighting three non-top-12 ADP WRs who could realistically finish as the WR1. One of those picks was Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Maye's 2024 rookie year was largely uneventful. He finished as the overall QB22 and was even worse in points per game. During the offseason, New England drafted TreVeyon Henderson to bolster the backfield and signed soon-to-be 32-year-old Stefon Diggs to anchor the receiving corps. Diggs leads the team in WR targets, catches, and yards. Fellow 32-year-old Mack Hollins is the team's #2 WR in targets and catches. Nearly 31-year-old Hunter Henry is on the verge of a career-high in receiving yards with four games remaining.
But New England's averaging the eighth-fewest pass attempts per contest. Last night, seven Patriots had 3+ catches. The week before, five Patriots had 3+. It's a fairly conservative offense, where Maye has to capitalize on a limited number of opportunities.
This isn't Mahomes feeding Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for a combined 190-2,815-22 receiving line while airing it out 36.3 times per game. It isn't Jackson rushing for an absurd 1,206 yards in 15 games. Maye's fantasy prowess is built, in part, on a league-best 72% completion percentage and the second-most yards per pass attempt. Both marks are comfortably higher than last year's. In other words, it was difficult to anticipate this fairly dramatic shift.
Or at least it was for most of us. Some of you felt confident that Maye would break through, just as some of you believed in Mahomes in August 2018 and Jackson in August 2019. There are usually signs. But often those signs aren't easily visible.
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