Yesterday I walked through how the market (based on average draft position) might rank the top 15 QBs for 2026 beginning next May. These are simply predictions based on my read of how the market -- millions of fantasy managers, aided by industry experts, news stories, and home-grown research -- often settles on early preseason rankings.
Today let's dive into RBs, with the understanding that a *lot* can change this offseason. So these projections are based on what we know, as well as what's likely to happen. As with QBs, I'm ignoring 2026 rookies because that's more chaos than any of us need right now (or speaking for myself, it would take several thousand words to parse all the realistic possibilities, and you all have done enough reading for one season).
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Starting with the top 5 RBs in fantasy points per game thru Week 17, we've got (1) Christian McCaffrey, (2) Bijan Robinson, (3), Jonathan Taylor, (4) Jahmyr Gibbs, and (5) De'Von Achane. Three of them will face at least one big question. For Taylor and Achane, who will be their quarterback? And CMC's turning 30 and will be coming off a 400+ touch campaign -- one of the only RBs in NFL history to do this three times. But all five are realistic bets to start the preseason as top 7 RBs in ADP.
RBs 6-10 in fantasy points per game are (6) James Cook, (7) Derrick Henry, (8) Chase Brown, (9) Cam Skattebo, and (10) Josh Jacobs. Cook probably is one only two RBs who could have a top-5 designation. Henry will be turning 33 at the end of next season and is as volume- and TD-dependent as ever. Great news for his floor. But is it good enough to put his ADP in the top 8? Brown is ascending, or at least locked in as a bell cow in a plus offense. Jacobs is holding steady as a less efficient version of Henry with a bigger pass-catching role.
And Tyrone Tracy (along with Devin Singletary) have done pretty well in Skattebo's absence. Starting in Week 3, the rookie's touch count across those next five games was 16, 27, 21, 21, and 19. That would equate to 350+ touches for a 17-game season. The market might assume that he'll re-join a backfield with a slightly reduced role, because there's little need to overwork a young, talented RB on a rebuilding team when other guys can help carry the load.
RBs 11-15 are (11) Kyren Williams, (12) Travis Etienne, (13) Javonte Williams, (14) Omarion Hampton, and (15) D'Andre Swift. My best read of their situations is . . . difficult. Will Blake Corum keep cutting into Williams' ceiling? Same question re: Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift. Same question re: Kimani Vidal if he re-signs with the Chargers and plays alongside Hampton. And where will impending free agents Travis Etienne and Javonte Williams end up?
Assuming everyone returns to their current teams, I think the market will keep most of them in the top 8-14. Etienne and Swift might be lowest because they *might* have the lowest volume potential. But it's all pretty fuzzy at the moment.
RBs 16-20 are (16) Ashton Jeanty, (17) Saquon Barkley, (18) Bucky Irving, (19) Jaylen Warren, and (20) Rico Dowdle. I believe there will be a near consensus that Jeanty and Barkley will do better in 2026, pushing their ADPs into the top 12. Remember, Jeanty had nearly 400 touches last year at Boise State, while Barkley had nearly 500 touches for the Super Bowl-champion Eagles. Their letdowns (based on their 2025 ADPs) shouldn't have been surprising. Their 2026 ADPs should coalesce around the midpoint of their 2025 ADPs and their actual 2025 production.
As discussed several times, Irving was undervalued in the summer of 2024 (RB52 ADP), and then the market over-corrected this past summer (RB11 ADP). Rachaad White is entering free agency, but Sean Tucker remains. I think Irving's 2026 ADP range is between RB16 and RB22, depending largely on whether Tampa Bay re-signs White and keeps this backfield crowded.
And while Warren is pretty locked in with a "streamable" ADP, Dowdle could be as high as 16-18 if he signs with a team as the lead back, or he could dip into the 30s if he joins a team as the 1B behind an established starter.
RBs 21-25 includes three rookies: (21) Breece Hall, (22) RJ Harvey, (23) Kenneth Gainwell, (24) Quinshon Judkins, and (25) TreVeyon Henderson. Gainwell's capped ceiling probably will push his ADP below his 2025 production. There’s a good chance Hall (impending free agent) we’ll move on, so who knows what his situation will be. But if the Jets somehow retain him, their ugly offense and questionable QB situation should keep him out of the top 16. The same goes for Judkins, who actually has lower upside because he doesn't catch as many passes. Harvey's status hinges partly on whether Denver re-signs JK Dobbins, though Henry at this point looks like a 250+ touch RB regardless. And Henderson is a true wild card with top-10 upside and a top 20-24 floor if Rhamondre Stevenson keeps averaging 10-12 touches per game.
Finally, RBs 26-30 are (26) Dobbins, (27) James Conner, (28) Stevenson, (29) Tony Pollard, and (30) Kenneth Walker. As already stated, Dobbins' ADP depends on where he lands and what his role is. Conner's ADP hinges on his injury recovery, though I doubt the market will put him in the top 30 regardless. Stevenson's and Pollard's ADPs should be around their 2025 production, assuming the former continues to mix in, and assuming the latter isn't a salary cap casualty on the rebuilding Titans.
That leaves us with Walker; he and teammate Zach Charbonnet are really hard to figure out, as both cancel each other out, but both are also somewhat streamable. Walker's headed for free agency. My ADP predictions assume he'll stick around, or else he'll end up in a similar situation elsewhere, and Seattle will replace him . . . keeping Charbonnet off the must-start radar.
Given all this, here's my prediction for the top 25 RB ADPs when they're first released around May, with the understanding that much depends on offseason roster moves. The following are in order, with Bijan projected as the preseason RB1:
Top 5: Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, De'Von Achane
Top 6-10: James Cook, Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, RJ Harvey
Top 11-15: Ashton Jeanty, Josh Jacobs, Javonte Williams, Kyren Williams, TreVeyon Henderson
Top 16-20: Omarion Hampton, Cam Skattebo, D'Andre Swift, Travis Etienne, Breece Hall
Top 21-25: Bucky Irvin, Jaylen Warren, Quinshon Judkins, Rico Dowdle, Kenneth Walker
Potential top 25 depending on roster moves and other factors: Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, Woody Marks.
As always, looking forward to feedback, pushback, and any other kind of "back" talk.
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* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 162: "Overperforming and Underperforming Fantasy RBs" -- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745