Congratulations to everyone who won your title last night (or your semis if you compete in Week 18). Yesterday I walked through my plan for this week, so let's jump in with 2026 QB preseason ADP projections. Again, having a pretty accurate read of their value in six months will enable us to identify potential bargains and busts. So to be clear, this isn't how I think these players will perform next season. It's based on how I think the "market" will value these players next summer.
Starting with the top 5 QBs in fantasy points per game thru Week 17, we've got (1) Josh Allen, (2) Brock Purdy, (3), Drake Maye, (4) Patrick Mahomes, and (5) Matthew Stafford, . Allen is a great bet to have a QB1 ADP because he's been elite for years and likely won't have a drop-off in playmaker personnel (starting RB, WRs, TE). If anything, his WRs should improve. The only question mark is his age (30 in May). But that's not enough for the market to knock him down.
Maye seems like a solid bet to be top 3. He's young and ascending, period. Purdy's a bigger question mark because of slightly higher-than-normal durability issues. The market doesn't generally overly penalize players coming off serious injuries unless those ailments are chronic, or unless the player is relatively old. Still, I don't see Purdy catapulting to the top 5. The top 7-9 seems more realistic.
Stafford's incredible age-37 campaign is presumably replicable if 33-year-old Davante Adams returns and keeps playing at a high level. Still, late-career breakout seasons (like Peyton Manning's age-37 campaign) aren't generally sustainable. Tom Brady's end-of-career dominance at age-43 started with 610 pass attempts, followed by an NFL-leading 719 throws, culminating with 733 throws in his final season. On a per-pass basis, he did progressively worse. That's the norm. Stafford is no longer a high-volume passer, and I think the market will decide he'll have a tough time coming close to matching this year's numbers in 2026.
Then there's Mahomes, who's expected to make a full recovery by Week 1. In other words, he should be fine, and his surrounding talent (whether or not Travis Kelce retires) will still be very good or (possibly) terrific. He was the overall QB1 for much of the first half of the season. I think the market will view him as a top 5-6 QB.
In terms of fantasy points per game, QBs 6-thru-10 entering Week 18 are (6) Trevor Lawrence, (7) Dak Prescott, (8) Caleb Williams, (9) Jalen Hurts, and (10) Bo Nix. Dak's and Hurts' 2026 market values probably hinge largely on what happens with George Pickens, Javonte Williams, and AJ Brown. If everyone sticks around, both QBs should have top-10 ADPs and possibly top 8. Hurts' low passing volume and dramatically diminished rushing are concerns -- but they're probably more *our* concerns. The market likely will see his overall numbers and expect nothing worse and maybe something closer to 2024.
Williams and Nix are still presumably ascending. Courtland Sutton will turn 31 next season, and as discussed previously, Nix's rushing numbers have ticked down slightly. And Williams has persevered despite losing his early-season #1 WR. The market probably will keep things pretty safe with them, roughly aligning ADPs with 2025 production -- or maybe shifting both down one spot.
That leaves Lawrence: a true wild card. He's had breakouts in similar seasons, only to crash later. This year he struggled early before hitting his stride -- and maintaining that stride. He's a sure-fire top 12 ADP quarterback, and with Travis Hunter returning to a beautifully crowded receiving corps, Lawrence's ADP might be as good as QB6. Let's table him for a moment.
Running briefly through the top 11 to 20 in fantasy points per game, starting with 11: Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels, Jacoby Brissett, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and Justin Fields. Among these, we can toss out Fields and hold off on Brissett until Arizona's 2026 QB situation solidifies, because they're a pretty strong candidate to draft a quarterback. And Jones is a huge question mark for multiple reasons.
I think the market will mostly look past the struggles of Herbert, Jackson, and Burrow. Herbert languished behind an injury-depleted offensive line. Jackson and Burrow dealt with injuries and almost assuredly will have top 8 ADPs, while Herbert probably will fall in the top 9-12 range. Daniels is a fascinating fantasy QB heading into Year 3, and I think his ADP will shift a lot during the summer as the market tries to settle on an "accurate" ADP. For now, I'd expect him to begin just inside the top 10.
Goff and Dart will both have healthy and talented RBs, WRs, and TEs. So will Mayfield, but the latter's struggles are concerning given his somewhat underwhelming stint in Cleveland. Maybe the market will factor in all the injuries to his playmakers, and the fact that he hasn't been 100% healthy. But I think he's a longshot to post an ADP ahead of Goff and Dart.
Given all this, here's my prediction for the top 15 QB ADPs when they're first released around May, with the understanding that some of this hinges on offseason roster moves. The following are in order, with Allen projected as the preseason QB1:
Top 5: Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jow Burrow
Top 6-10: Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels
Top 11-15: Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix
Finally (again), this has nothing to do with my projections for how they'll perform in 2026. We're sizing up realistic ADP-based values, which will help us identify fantasy bargains and busts. And beyond these top 15, when we consider all of the "good" QBs remaining, there are definitely buying opportunities. Dart, Mayfield, Jordan Love, and CJ Stroud could be serviceable or even very good. Brissett (if he's starting), Tyler Shough, Sam Darnold, and even JJ McCarthy could be trendy late-round fliers, along with whoever's quarterbacking good offenses like the Colts.
And don't completely overlook Cam Ward, who's come on strong these past four weeks. In what might be an NFL first (at least in the modern NFL), three of his top four receivers (based on targets) are fellow rookies. The market will see that he's averaging only about 11 fantasy points per game, and therefore doesn't belong in the top 24. But he's doing about as well as any rookie on this year's Titans could have done. The market doesn't always incorporate context. We need to use that to our advantage.
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