For some of us, Thanksgiving was fantasy nirvana. For others, fantasy carnage. Maybe a few of you were somewhere in between, but based on the number of massive hits and misses, I'm guessing most managers have a very strong opinion about what happened yesterday. If you want to constructively celebrate or vent, you've come to the right place (though a trusted friend, therapist, or place of worship might also help).
In the meantime, here's a comparison of what I anticipated yesterday morning and how it all played out:
Lions -- Pre-game: "Managers should be aware that [Jahmyr] Gibbs out-touched [David] Montgomery this past Sunday 26-8, and that (at minimum) a more balanced attack should be expected." Also, Jameson Williams was a great bet to rebound, given his history of rebounding after miserable performances.
Post-game: Gibbs dominated touches 23-10, so . . . that didn't play out as expected. But . . . Gibbs' fantasy letdown was consistent with 25+ touch Sunday RBs dating back to 2012. Also, Amon-Ra St. Brown's injury was obviously awful news for some of you, and for others it opened the door for more consistent must-start production from Jameson Williams. This will be one of the most significant fantasy storylines coming out of Week 13.
Packers -- Pre-game: "[Josh] Jacobs is deceptively TD-dependent in what probably will be an unfavorable road matchup. I think Jacobs will top out at 10 fantasy points if he doesn't score."
Post-game: Jacobs scored 10.1 points and didn't score. But . . . I wrongly warned against trusting any Green Bay WR. Instead, it was an unusual result, where all three starting wideouts produced startable numbers. When Matthew Golden and/or Jayden Reed return, who knows how this corps will shake out.
Cowboys -- Pre-game: "Dallas is fairly easy to understand fantasy-wise. There are five relevant players, and everyone else can be (most of the time) safely ignored. The biggest question is one I've raised the past couple weeks: Why do we assume CeeDee Lamb is the elite #1 WR, and George Pickens is merely the #2 WR?"
Post-game: Four of the five did what they needed to, and the fifth (Jake Ferguson) was adequate enough for some of you. But . . . Lamb out-performed Pickens by 7.4 points. But (again) . . . Pickens out-targeted Lamb 13-9. It's still a fascinating alpha battle.
Chiefs -- Pre-game: On paper, a fantastic fantasy matchup for Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce, with Xavier Worthy primed (at some point) for a rebound. Dallas's defense has looked better the past two weeks after surrendering the second-most points thru Week 10. But KC should get 27+ points, making those first three guys must-starts and Worthy a solid streamer." Also, I thought Kareem Hunt would take a backseat to Isiah Pacheco after Hunt's massive 33-touch Sunday workload.
Post-game: KC scored 28 points. Mahomes and Rice crushed it, Kelce was terrific, and Worthy managed a respectable 11.4 points. What about Hunt? He earned far more work than I expected. He also did what almost every 30+ touch Sunday RB has done before him (since 2012): regress sharply. I discuss this more on today's podcast.
Ravens -- Pre-game: "The range of potential outcomes for Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, and Mark Andrews are huge. The opposing Bengals are yielding the most QB fantasy points and most TE fantasy points per game, as well as the third-most QB fantasy points. In a world where Baltimore's anticipated adjustments 'work,' Jackson, Henry, and Flowers should crush it, while Andrews -- tied for the most-targeted TE inside the opposing five-yard line -- would remain a solid TD-dependent dart throw.
Post-game: Henry was good, Andrews was so-so, and . . . in the big picture, that's largely irrelevant. A complete meltdown at home versus a bottom-tier defense. Can managers realistically expect top 16 QB production from Lamar Jackson next week against Pittsburgh and the week after in Cincinnati? Who knows, and that's the problem.
Bengals -- Pre-game: "The return of Joe Burrow, paired with Ja'Marr Chase's mini-return and Tee Higgins' injury absence. A fascinating set of storylines for a team with the same playoff odds as the Browns (in other words, almost 0%). The only question is whether to stream Andrei Iosivas, as it's entirely realistic that Burrow could target Chase 18+ times, leaving relatively little for other receivers. Keep in mind, Cincy is last in the NFL in offensive time-of-possession."
Post-game: A shockingly favorable game script, which kept the Bengals on offense for nearly two-thirds of the game (reportedly 38 minutes and 46 seconds). Chase had 14 targets. Iosivas salvaged mediocrity with a TD reception on his only connection with Burrow. 26-year-old Mitchell Tinsley was the biggest surprise with nine targets. But he reeled in only two, giving him only seven catches on 21 targets for the season. We'll see if Tinsley fades to the background next week, even if Higgins sits another game.
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