Tonight's matchup features two teams with very different fantasy identities. With the Bills, managers know what they're getting at QB and RB. Josh Allen is on pace for a career-high (and nearly all-time NFL high) 420.4 points. James Cook is enjoying a near-elite career year. They anchor an offense ranked fourth in scoring.
Their receiving corps is on the opposite end of the predictability scale. Khalil Shakir is leading the way as the WR41 in points per game, while the more erratic Keon Coleman is the WR54. And yet, last weekend's top four WR scorers were Tyrell Shavers, Gabe Davis, Curtis Samuel, and Joshua Palmer. That's because Shakir had only 0.7 points on one catch, and Coleman was a healthy scratch for disciplinary reasons.
It's been that kind of season for Buffalo, which will be without Dalton Kincaid tonight, opening a small door for a throw-back Dawson Knox performance. But there are no "safe" fantasy receivers here. Shakir is averaging only 8.1 points in games where he doesn't score, and Shavers is a 26-year-old with only 12 career receptions. Houston's D is yielding the second-fewest WR fantasy points per game and a league-low 72.7 QB rating. It's a bad combination for managers considering starting a Buffalo WR or TE.
Houston has a nearly identical point differential due to a much worse offense and much better defense (fewest points surrendered). Their fantasy options reflect this imbalance. With CJ Stroud still sidelined, Davis Mills will get at least one more start. The eighth QB taken in the 2021 draft, Mills -- who was selected to replace Deshaun Watson -- flopped as a starter before handing the reins to Stroud in 2023. Ironically, Mills has outplayed Watson since the latter moved to Cleveland, and aside from Trevor Lawrence, he might end up being the most productive quarterback from that 2021 draft.
Nico Collins seems like a must-start, while Jayden Higgins probably has leapfrogged Christian Kirk on the depth chart, making the second-round rookie a solid deeper-league streamer. Dalton Schultz has come on strong with Mills under center, making him tough to bench in 14-team leagues.
And the backfield appears to belong to Woody Marks these days, as Nick Chubb's usage keeps declining. But I'd like to see Marks gets more targets -- something he was accustomed to in college, where he caught an insane 261 balls. But in his three most recent contests, he has only three catches. To be comfortably startable, he'll need a higher floor.
Final score prediction: Bills win 29-23. Leave your prediction below.
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