Last season, the Jets finished with a better record than the Patriots. After tonight, New England might lead them by 6 1/2 games.
From a fantasy perspective, New York entered September with an all-world WR, a formerly all-world (and still seemingly "great") RB, a high-priced rookie TE, and an overvalued QB. The team failed to secure receiver depth after letting Davante Adams walk, which is why Tyler Johnson is their second-best fantasy wideout at WR96.
Of course, that doesn't mean Johnson will come close to filling Garrett Wilson's shoes. There is no "next man up" in this passing attack. 30-year-old Josh Reynolds actually has the second-most WR receptions (11) and looks (21). His quarterbacks have a 26.2 QB rating when targeting him. Allen Lazard and Arian Smith lower everyone else's two-point floors.
Mason Taylor led all Jets two games ago with five catches and eight targets. Last week was a dud, though he played more offensive snaps than any of his RB/WR/TE teammates. He's the one reasonable dart throw in an otherwise avoidably underwhelming receiving corps.
But wait! What about Adonai Mitchell? The 2024 second-round draft pick has generated a lot of buzz since the Colts gave up on him at the trade deadline. He was abysmal last year with Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco at QB, reeling in only 41.8% of his targets. This year he hasn't looked much better despite the QB upgrade. With three much stronger WRs ahead of him on the depth chart, Indy felt comfortable packaging him in their trade for Sauce Gardner.
Mitchell truly is a wild card, in part because the Jets almost have to feature him with Wilson sidelined. And yet, betting on any wideout catching balls thrown by Justin Fields is a big ask. When it comes to how Mitchell's talent will translate on the field, I'll believe it when I see it.
As for the backfield, who knows. The Patriots are yielding the fourth-fewest fantasy RB points per game, and Breece Hall isn't getting enough through the air (five catches in his last four contests) to maintain a must-start floor. Add in the strong possibility that New England will win by 20+, and it'll b tough to trust Hall -- who's coming off a 22-touch performance on Sunday -- as more than a "start-and-hope" running back.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots are clicking with a dominant Drake Maye, a still-relevant Stefon Diggs, and an array of streamers. Four of their WRs are among fantasy's top 52 scorers. Everyone outside of Diggs normally is a dice roll, but with Kayshon Boutte sidelined, Demario Douglas and Mack Hollins offer better than their usual odds, while Hunter Henry (with Ausin Hooper out) is a reasonable bounce-back candidate.
Finally, the Pats' backfield is as clear as ever . . . for now. A favorable game script should keep TreVeyon Henderson on the field. Expect more than Sunday's 15 touches and 14+ points against a middling / overmatched Jets defense.
Final score prediction: New England wins 37-6 thanks to four forced turnovers. Leave your prediction below.
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* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 114: "Why Justin Fields Was Overvalued This Summer" -- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745