After a convincing victory over the Raiders, the Cowboys are firmly in the playoff hunt at 4-5-1, which is good news if you have at least one of their five primary offensive playmakers. Four of those five have been fantasy bargains compared to preseason ADP: Dak Prescott is the QB8, Javonte Williams is the RB8, George Pickens is crushing it as the WR4, and Jake Ferguson is the TE3.
Ferguson is an interesting "must-start" tight end. He's averaging the fewest yards per reception (6.7) of any top-30 fantasy TE, and (no joke) the second-fewest of any top-65 TE. He's a highly dependable short-yardage specialist and is tied for first with nine TE targets inside the opposing 10-yard line. On most other teams, he'd be a regression candidate. But as Prescott's clear #3 receiving option in the second-highest-scoring offense, Ferguson keeps rolling.
The only fantasy disappointment (relatively speaking) is CeeDee Lamb. I discuss this more on today's podcast. Outside of his dominant 2023 campaign, Lamb has never cleared 18 fantasy points per game in a season. Are we still viewing him as elite or even near-elite based on one incredible year? Or can we embrace the possibility that Pickens will remain the team's top fantasy WR?
We might also consider that Dallas isn't as good as their record suggests. Their four victories are against teams that are currently 3-8, 2-8, 2-8, and 2-9. They averaged 38.5 points in those wins and only 20.4 in five losses. Obviously, that's a huge difference, and their next five opponents (Eagles, Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, and Chargers) could push them from contention and also slow their offense.
Meanwhile, managers rostering Raiders -- specifically Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, and presumably Tre Tucker -- have to hope Geno Smith remains at the helm. Not that Smith is elevating this offense. But as I mentioned earlier this season, Kenny Pickett taking over probably would mean downgrades for Bowers/Jeanty/Tucker.
One notably surprising bright spot (in an otherwise dim performance) was Jeanty's season-high six catches on a season-high eight targets. Five times this year, Jeanty has collected no more than 3.3 fantasy points through the air, which helps explain why his floor is so low. If Geno commits more to dump-offs, Jeanty should be at least "fine" the rest of the way, which is better than "oh no."
Finally, 33-year-old Tyler Lockett has been thrust into the #2 WR role since leaving Tennessee (coinciding with Jakobi Meyers leaving Vegas). In two games for his new club, Lockett has caught eight of nine targets for 77 yards. He is both unreliable and (depending on rookie Jack Bech's development) a useful dart throw for desperate managers needing a WR plug-in.
And Bech really is the key, because some teams in this situation would lean more heavily on their younger players when the postseason is out of reach. The fact that this team signed Lockett despite having Bech and fellow rookie WR Dont'e Thornton suggests they need more time.
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