Yesterday marked the second-lowest-scoring Thursday Night Football game in 15 years. Bo Nix finished with 5.8 fantasy points; Geno Smith did even worse. It's yet another reminder of the chaos of short weeks.
Ashton Jeanty remains an enigma. He's a must-start RB due to his talent and bell cow role. But his inefficient running can't be blamed entirely on Denver's stout run D. His 64-yard scamper against a bottom-tier Bears run defense a few weeks ago is the only time he's carried the ball for more than 18 yards.
An historically elite broken-tackle rate adds to the confusion: he's clearly good enough to churn out extra yards. The Raiders' weak passing attack probably isn't helping. And Jeanty's 397 touches for Boise State last season has always been a yellow flag. The good news is that his volume is assured. The bad news is that Vegas has scored seven or fewer points in three of their last five games; the offense frequently looks broken.
As discussed a few weeks ago, Geno Smith realistically won't finish the season under center. A quad injury forced him out for a play or two in the fourth quarter. We'll see if that injury lingers into Week 11. Regardless, we should brace for Kenny Pickett to take the reins at some point, which could be even more disastrous for Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker (though some might say Pickett couldn't do any worse).
For Denver, Troy Franklin is the biggest story: 37 targets in his last four outings, culminating in four touchdowns. His weak 49% catch rate during this span probably won't diminish his future usage. 30-year-old Courtland Sutton has taken the biggest hit, catching only 54% of his 26 looks these past four games. Time is not on his side in what is otherwise a youthful, ascending WR corps.
Meanwhile, JK Dobbins maintained his steady usage advantage over rookie RJ Harvey. As discussed on yesterday's podcast, if you have Dobbins and it's not too late to trade, I'd overpay for Harvey. Similarly, if you have Harvey, I'd overpay (slightly) for Dobbins. You shouldn't have to invest much in either one, as Dobbins is a back-end starter and Harvey is a dart-throw streamer. But together, you'd have a fantastic hedge if one gets hurt or if the more efficient Dobbins starts consistently pushing for 20+ touches.
For the closest-score contest, Rick Merrit's 24-10 call is the closest, since no one else guessed a lower-scoring Broncos win. A big congratulations to Rick. And had any of us reviewed all the picks before the opening kickoff, we could've pulled a Price Is Right and changed our guess to 23-10. Something to think about for next week . . .
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