Week 10 begins a divisional matchup between teams going in opposite directions. Denver is on pace for its first AFC West title in 10 years -- the last time they won a playoff game (Super Bowl 50). That 2015 club prevailed largely because of its near-elite defense (fourth-fewest points surrendered) and a capable backfield tandem featuring perennially injury-prone CJ Anderson and slightly younger 24-year-old Ronnie Hillman.
This year's Broncos are 7-2 thanks to a near-elite defense (fourth-fewest points surrendered) and a very capable backfield featuring perennially injury-prone JK Dobbins and slightly younger 24-year-old RJ Harvey. But the key difference is at quarterback. Long gone are the days when all-time-great Peyton Manning limped into retirement as a champion, finishing as the QB40 in points per game. Last year Bo Nix became the franchise's first top-12 fantasy quarterback since 2014. He's taken another step forward in Year 2.
But . . . his statistical output is interesting. Compared to last season, he's averaging more fantasy points *despite* compiling a meaningfully lower completion percentage, along with lower per-game averages for passing yards, rushing attempts, and rushing yards.
What's the biggest reason for his 1.3-point per-game uptick in fantasy production? 2.2 TDs per game compared to 1.9 last year. And yet, he could easily be an elite QB if Dobbins and Harvey weren't so effective near the goal line. For example, inside the opposing five-yard line, Nix is 6-of-13 for five TDs through the air with one scoreless rushing attempt. Last year inside the five-yard line he was 7-of-10 for five TDs through the air with four TDs on six rushing attempts.
In other words, his goal-line throws are up about 60% compared to 2024 while his goal-line passing touchdowns have nearly doubled. But he's less of a go-to option on the ground. So he's racking up more fantasy points despite running less near the end zone, where many other run-friendly elite and near-elite QBs elevate their ceilings.
Among the rest of the Broncos, Troy Franklin remains the (ascending?) wild card through the air, and Dobbins and Harvey are the topic of today's podcast. Basically, their stable touch distribution probably won't remain stable, and managers should brace for (or prepare for through a trade) this likely shift.
As for the Raiders, no more Jakobi Meyers means Tre Tucker has an opening to be a weekly fantasy starter. The good news is that Vegas -- which hasn't won a playoff game or won a division title since reaching the Super Bowl 23 years ago -- is built to play from behind. Maybe rookie WR Jack Bech or TE Michael Mayer will get an extra target or two. More realistically, Geno Smith will continue peppering Brock Bowers with targets, and Ashton Jeanty will finish with as many touches as he can handle.
Final score prediction: the Broncos win 37-9. Share your better prediction below.
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