Sometimes things happen that are highly unpredictable, like Matthew Stafford outperforming Jalen Hurts; most managers are surprised or even shocked. Other times things happen that are highly predictable, like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs sitting among the top 5 RBs; managers drafted on the assumption this would happen.
Then there's everything else, like an event that many or most managers didn't expect, but which others planned for. The former group is caught by surprise; the latter group gains a competitive advantage. The more often you're in the latter group, the higher your odds of winning the championship.
Two things happened yesterday that fit into that third group. The first was Travis Hunter, who landed on injured reserve two weeks ago with a knee injury. He could have returned as early as Week 13 -- just in time to help managers down the stretch. His final game before getting hurt (Week 7) was his first double-digit fantasy performance. In light of Brian Thomas's struggles, Hunter's 24.1-point breakout suggested that 2025's #2 overall pick was poised for big things.
But four days before Jacksonville traded for Jakobi Meyers, I walked through on the FF4W podcast (a) why his Week 7 outburst probably would be an outlier if he returned this season, and (b) why managers should sell high as soon as possible. And by "high," I suggested that managers "trade Hunter for a streamer." Nothing big. Just get a deal done. It was more important to cut bait than be left with a mostly or completely worthless fantasy asset in re-draft league.
Yesterday he had surgery. Now he's out for the season. He's a worthless fantasy asset in re-draft leagues. It wasn't guaranteed, but it was more likely than not. For me, that's almost always enough reason to move on.
The second news item was a report that JK Dobbins *might* be placed on injured reserve. Even if he isn't, this has the potential to upend what has been a highly stable 1A / 1B backfield.
The FF4W podcast episode six days ago is called "JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey: a Surprisingly Unstable Backfield." I discussed Dobbins' storied injury history and why managers rostering only Dobbins should overpay for Harvey. At this stage of the season, backfield hedges are increasingly valuable. If you had Dobbins and not Harvey, and if Dobbins got hurt, then not only would you be down a starting fantasy RB, but an opponent would now have one *extra* starting fantasy RB. An avoidable lose-lose situation.
Dobbins has been a uniquely risky fantasy running back. Entering this year, he'd missed 46 of his previous 68 regular-season games. If a week ago you had to bet whether or not he could sustain his 2025 fantasy success, which side would have made more sense? For me, his injury history -- along with Denver likely playing things a bit safer ahead of a potential playoff run -- made him a risky bet. If you traded for Harvey and gave up a little more than what the rookie was worth, you might have gotten a steal.
Every player has a range of realistic outcomes. The deeper we get into a season, the more those outcomes narrow. With Hunter, the question was why Jacksonville would rush back a 22-year-old unicorn in a year where a Super Bowl appearance seemed unlikely. With Dobbins, the question was when Denver would adjust their backfield workload distribution to help keep their perennially injury-prone "starter" healthy for the playoffs.
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* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 113: "Next-Season Fantasy Impact of the Rise of High-Usage RBs" -- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745