Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate. One big meal and three big games today. Here are the biggest fantasy pressure points for each team:
Lions -- As shared this past weekend, last year Jahmyr Gibbs received the lion's share (bad pun intended) of the backfield usage the Sunday before Thanksgiving, out-touching David Montgomery 24-11. Four days later, Montgomery out-touched Gibbs 24-11. I'm starting both today, but managers should be aware that Gibbs out-touched Montgomery this past Sunday 26-8, and that (at minimum) a more balanced attack should be expected.
That said . . . on today's podcast, I discuss Montgomery's 2025 successes and regression. While his yards-per-carry is the second-highest of his career, he's broken only two tackles on 133 touches after enjoying elite broken-tackle rates in each of his past six seasons. I don't recall seeing a worse broken-tackle rate than his in 2025, 2024, or earlier. It's a bright-red warning sign heading into 2026.
And what do we do with Jameson Williams? Dating back to last season, three of the last four times Williams has posted five or fewer fantasy points, he's rebounded with 16+ points the following game. His o'fer on Sunday is concerning, and it also doesn't mean he's benchable. While 16+ points seems low-probability against one of the league's tougher pass defenses, 8+ points is more than realistic for desperate managers.
Packers -- Josh Jacobs' impending return is good news only at first glance. The opposing Lions are yielding the fewest RB fantasy points per game. Jacobs is deceptively TD-dependent in what probably will be an unfavorable road matchup. Emanuel Wilson's 30 touches on Sunday doesn't mean he'll be invisible tomorrow. 6+ touches is a reasonable expectation. I think Jacobs will top out at 10 fantasy points if he doesn't score.
Through the air, the possible return of Matthew Golden might once again turn this receiving corps into "start-and-hope" fantasy territory. No one's getting enough targets to be fully startable. If they're playing from behind, maybe Jordan Love tries to push the ball downfield more. Still, it's hard to trust any Green Bay WR, as usual.
Cowboys -- Dallas is fairly easy to understand fantasy-wise. There are five relevant players, and everyone else can be (most of the time) safely ignored. The biggest question is one I've raised the past couple weeks: Why do we assume CeeDee Lamb is the elite #1 WR, and George Pickens is merely the #2 WR? Two weeks ago there was a fair amount of push-back. Now, probably not so much. Lamb has had one elite season (2023). Pickens is playing with the best QB of his career. It makes sense that the pecking order isn't obvious.
Chiefs -- On paper, a fantastic fantasy matchup for Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce, with Xavier Worthy primed (at some point) for a rebound. Dallas's defense has looked better the past two weeks after surrendering the second-most points thru Week 10. But KC should get 27+ points, making those first three guys must-starts and Worthy a solid streamer.
The backfield seems clear to me based on historical data. We'll see if those trends hold up. Kareem Hunt had 33 touches on Sunday. I think Andy Reid and his coaches were confident Isiah Pacheco would return today. So they gave 30-year-old Hunt a career-high 30 carries. It's almost inconceivable that a team would do that unless it was apparent Hunt could take a backseat four days later.
Ravens -- The range of potential outcomes for Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, and Mark Andrews are huge. The opposing Bengals are yielding the most QB fantasy points and most TE fantasy points per game, as well as the third-most QB fantasy points. In a world where Baltimore's anticipated adjustments "work," Jackson, Henry, and Flowers should crush it, while Andrews -- tied for the most-targeted TE inside the opposing five-yard line -- would remain a solid TD-dependent dart throw.
Bengals -- The return of Joe Burrow, paired with Ja'Marr Chase's mini-return and Tee Higgins' injury absence. A fascinating set of storylines for a team with the same playoff odds as the Browns (in other words, almost 0%). The only question is whether to stream Andrei Iosivas, as it's entirely realistic that Burrow could target Chase 18+ times, leaving relatively little for other receivers. Keep in mind, Cincy is last in the NFL in offensive time-of-possession. So if Baltimore does a pretty good job controlling the clock, Burrow might be "limited" to 30-35 throws rather than the 42 pass-attempts-per-game we've seen from Joe Flacco.
Good luck today.
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