On today's podcast, I spend a few minutes explaining why Saquon Barkley was ranked #17 overall on my draft board despite his overall-3 ADP. It's not rocket science, and it's not guessing. Many of you know the FF4W research I'm talking about. If you're newer to this page, the episode walks through it.
Looking ahead, here's the biggest fantasy pressure point for each remaining Week 13 team:
Panthers -- A general pressure point: Carolina has rushed for less than 75 yards in each of its last three games and thrown for less than 200 yards in nine of its last 10 games (primarily with Bryce Young under center). The Panthers' top fantasy assets are facing the league's #1 defense at the worst time.
Rams -- Still stunned by the improbability of Matthew Stafford, whose preseason ADP was QB23 -- one spot behind Cam Ward. He currently has the 13th-best QB rating in NFL history and is the overall QB5. One notable and underreported reason for his success: his lowest sack rate in 12 years. The o-line is getting the job done.
Buccaneers -- A lot of injury-related chaos surrounding Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, and Chris Godwin. Emeka Egbuka is the biggest pressure point, because he should be a must-start WR, but he's caught only 21 of his last 51 targets (41%).
Cardinals -- How might Marvin Harrison Jr.'s potential return subdue Michael Wilson? Or maybe the better question is how Wilson would undercut Harrison.
Jets -- John Metchie was a 2022 second-round pick with a strong shot at becoming Houston's #1 WR. Injuries and a crowded Texans wideout corps kept him on the periphery. Now he has a chance to be a meaningful fantasy contributor in New York down the stretch.
Falcons -- In his first six games, Bijan Robinson averaged 24.3 fantasy points. In his past five -- despite a 30.3-point outburst versus Carolina -- he's averaging only 15.8.
Dolphins -- Malik Washington remains relevant primarily because aside from him and Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown only one pass to another WR in the past two games.
Saints -- An opening for rookie Devin Neal, who could become a fantasy-playoff starter if Alvin Kamara remains sidelined. Neal caught 77 passes in college and posted s 5-43 receiving line last Sunday -- important indicators for fantasy-relevant RBs.
Colts -- Alec Pierce's regression (likely due to their last matchup) raises more questions about a WR corps with no clear-cut #1.
Texans -- Jayden Higgins has 7+ targets in four of his last five games and has been #2 on the team in WR snaps these past three games.
Titans -- A bottom-tier offense in search of a #1 WR. Rookies Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor are somewhat canceling each other out, while Van Jefferson looms. It's a rough combo for deep-league managers.
Jaguars -- Similar to Tennessee, but with a slightly better passing attack. A returning Brian Thomas Jr. would muddy things significantly.
Browns -- Quinshon Judkins is still running poorly and remains nearly invisible through the air. Managers have to decide whether to bet on a touchdown (or two or three), or look elsewhere for 7+ points.
49ers -- Is this the week Ricky Pearsall breaks through? The opposing Browns are yielding 8.3 receiving yards per WR target, which is about half a yard above the league average. Not enough to get excited about -- especially given Cleveland's elite pass rush -- but it's only a matter of time before the talented Pearsall to re-asserts himself.
Seahawks -- Kenneth Walker vs Zach Charbonnet, again.
Vikings -- Their QB debacle probably can't get worse, but of course it could. This is still an incredibly uncomfortable fantasy situation.
Chargers -- An injury-plagued offensive line has sapped this team of its aerial explosiveness. Earlier this season, Justin Herbert could feed 3+ receivers. Lately he's struggled to feed more than one.
Raiders -- Ashton Jeanty averaged 2.9 targets in his first seven contests. He's averaging 6.5 looks in his last four games, resulting in 61% of his season-long receiving yards. That's been the difference between "I hope Jeanty scores today" to "I'm starting Jeanty with reasonable confidence."
Steelers -- Is Kenneth Gainwell a solid weekly streamer these days?
Bills -- Khalil Shakir has 10+ points in eight of 11 outings. But his ceiling remains relatively capped in a low-volume passing attack, which is why he's only the WR36 in points per game.
Commanders -- Backups continue to populate the passing game, throwing our attention once again to Chris Rodriguez vs the continually fading Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Broncos -- RJ Harvey has surpassed 3.0 yards per carry only once in his last seven games. There's at least a nominal risk that Jaleel McLaughlin could win a "hot-hand" battle any given week.
Patriots -- Stefon Diggs keeps oscillating between must-start and "start-and-hope."
Giants -- Will a returning Jaxson Dart pick up where he left off pre-injury?
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