Since 2012, at least two preseason top-10 RBs have missed 3+ games. So far this season, no preseason top-10 RB has missed a game, while 14 of the next 18 preseason ranked RBs have flopped, gotten hurt, or lost their starting jobs.
This is probably the biggest statistical oddity I've found all year, and it helps explain why some of you are dominating and others are struggling. It also reinforces why handcuffs and hedges are essential regardless of whether your RBs are elite or streamable or somewhere in between.
If you want to learn more, today's 12-minute podcast episode takes a deeper dive on the implications. In the meantime, here's the biggest fantasy pressure point I'm tracking for each remaining Week 10 team:
Colts -- Last week the topic was Alec Pierce. It is again, as it should be when the supposed #3 WR earns double-digit targets in two of his last three games.
Falcons -- Darnell Mooney was last year's WR38 in points per game. This year he's the WR98 in what is possibly the most top-heavy NFL offense of the past decade.
Texans -- Nick Chubb's recent struggles might be partially due to tough matchups against Seattle and Denver -- the two stingiest run defenses (based on yards per carry). On this metric, the opposing Jaguars are fifth-best in the league. If he plays well enough tomorrow, things should get easier against two bottom-tier run D's: the Titans and Bills. But . . . there's no guarantee Chubb keeps his job after this week.
Jaguars -- What a mess, and what an opportunity for Jakobi Meyers.
Panthers -- With Tetairoa McMillan questionable, Xavier Legette and/or Jalen Coker could become instant streamers.
Saints -- How close are we to the end of Alvin Kamara's incredible career?
Buccaneers -- In the six games leading up to his Week 9 bye, Rachaad White had 65 carries for 208 yards. That's 3.2 yards per carry. In recent weeks, Sean Tucker has looked as good or better.
Patriots -- TreVeyon Henderson vs. Terrell Jennings.
Jets -- Will Breece Hall finish strong, or is he a major absentee risk down the stretch?
Browns -- Quinshon Judkins' three-TD outburst against Miami in Week 7 was impressive. But he's averaging only 3.6 YPC and four receiving yards per game with Dillon Gabriel under center.
Vikings -- While the sample size is small, JJ McCarthy is averaging 148 passing yards on 22 throws. Only two years ago, Kirk Cousins averaged 291 passing yards on 39 throws across in eight games before getting knocked out for the season. In other words, this team's passing attack is operating at around 50% of its "normal" 2023 capacity.
Ravens -- Derrick Henry averaged 2.5 broken tackles per game last season. It's only one-fifth of that this season. Typically -- especially for aged running backs -- this is a warning sign.
Dolphins -- Jaylen Waddle reportedly will remain a major cog in this franchise's upcoming rebuild. But he's enjoyed double-digit targets only once since Week 9 of the 2023 season. That's once in his last 31 games. While some of that is due to the presence of Tyreek Hill, it's conceivable that he's poised for top-12 production if Tua Tagovailoa feeds him just one or two more times a game.
Bills -- Khalil Shakir appears to be locked in as Josh Allen's #1 WR, while 2024 early-second-rounder Keon Coleman has been nearly invisible since his Week 1 breakout.
Bears -- Whether or not D'Andre Swift plays, Kyle Monangai's value entering Week 11 could be dramatically different than what it is entering Week 10.
Giants -- Devin Singletary surprisingly outplayed Tyrone Tracy last week, setting up an important and previously unlikely battle this weekend.
Seahawks -- The door is open for the newly added Rashid Shaheed to push for a rest-of-season #2 WR role.
Cardinals -- In his first game as Arizona's true starting quarterback, Jacoby Brissett faces his biggest test on the road against a solid Seattle D.
Commanders -- Jacory Croskey Merritt vs. Chris Rodriguez vs. bench everyone.
Lions -- Jameson Williams remains the toughest Detroit playmaker to figure out.
49ers -- Those rostering Jauan Jennings are running out of time to see him at/near his best before Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk restore this WR corps to full capacity.
Rams -- Over the summer I did a podcast episode articulating why Matthew Stafford (QB22 ADP) couldn't realistically feed two preseason top-12 WRs (Puka Nacua and Davante Adams). So far, I was completely wrong: Stafford is the QB9, and both Nacua and Adams are in the top 8. Absolutely incredible.
Chargers -- Kimani Vidal has alternated between incredible performances and forgettable performances.
Steelers -- Among the top 36 fantasy WR scorers, only Kayshon Boutte has fewer targets than DK Metcalf, and only Boutte has fewer catches than Metcalf.
Packers -- Can 2023 second-rounder Luke Musgrave achieve fantasy relevance?
Eagles -- Going forward, is DeVonta Smith a safer bet than AJ Brown?
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* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 109: "The Massive Statistical Oddity Surrounding This Preseason's RB Rankings" -- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745