Three of the four highest-scoring Week 11 fantasy QBs so far are Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett, and Justin Fields. The first was benched last year, the second has spent most of his career as an injury replacement, and the third wasn't named the starter until shortly before the opening kickoff.
On the flip side, three of the four lowest-scoring Week 11 fantasy QBs so far are Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, and Justin Herbert. I have Jackson and seriously considered picking up and starting Geno Smith. But I didn't have the guts. Sometimes matchups are more important than talent.
A lot happened yesterday, and some of it impacts fantasy values for Week 12 and beyond. Let's walk through the most notable storyline for each Sunday team.
Dolphins -- Saturday: "Jaylen Waddle has given managers must-start production in five of his last six contests. But he's averaging 7.2 targets during that stretch, which isn't that lofty for a team's #1 WR. (26 WRs are averaging more than 7.2 on the season)." Sunday: Seven more targets and not as much to show for it despite a neutral-to-unfavorable game script. The good news is that Malik Washington was the only other WR targeted.
Commanders -- Saturday: "The backfield has been, still is, and probably will remain confusing. The bigger question now is whether it'll matter for a free-falling team." Sunday: Chris Rodriguez took over and made it count. He now has 33 carries in his last three outings -- one more than Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Jaguars -- Saturday: "Brian Thomas vs. Jakobi Meyers vs. Parker Washington. Not exactly what was expected a couple months ago." Sunday: With Thomas a scratch, Jakobi Meyers led all receivers. I advised some of you that he's never been a true alpha compared to most teams' #1's, and he'll continue to have a low ceiling even if Thomas remains sidelined. And of course Bhayshul Tuten's breakout is notable, though his fourth-quarter ankle injury could undercut his stand-alone Week 12 fantasy value.
Chargers -- Saturday: "After a slow start, Ladd McConkey has proven me wrong nearly every week, while Keenan Allen has gone from resurgent star to irrelevant. Is this now the norm?" Sunday: A porous offensive line and Kimani Vidal's early exit (along with Jacksonville's defense) made this an offensive outlier for an offense that had scored 24+ in five straight. Still, Allen led the way (targets, catches, and yards), reminding managers that McConkey isn't a guaranteed fantasy start.
Steelers -- Saturday: "DK Metcalf has scored in five of eight games since Week 2. He's scored eight points or fewer in his other three. Two of those three were losses. It'll be interesting to see if Aaron Rodgers focuses more on his low-targeted #1." Sunday: Rodgers targeted Metcalf twice on the opening drive and only once more before departing at halftime. Backup Mason Rudolph targeted him five more times. There's certainly a scenario where Metcalf does better if Rudolph's under center next week.
Bengals -- Saturday: "Tee Higgins has scored in three straight for only the second time in his career. The first time was last year, when he finished as the WR6 in points per game." Sunday: Make it four in a row. Ever since Ja'Marr Chase's insane 23-target total in Week 7, Tee Higgins has comfortably outperformed him in fantasy.
Giants -- Saturday: "When Jameis Winston takes the field, anything can happen, and most of them do happen." Sunday: In seven starts last season, Winston averaged 40.6 pass attempts. Yesterday he threw it only 29 times. The game plan was crafted to lean more heavily on the run, and it worked for the first 59 minutes. Tyrone Tracy's heaviest load of the season likely won't be replicated when Jaxson Dart returns.
Packers -- Josh Jacobs' injury might be huge news. We'll probably learn more today. The fading Vikings are up next for Green Bay. It wouldn't be shocking if the Packers play it safe and rest Jacobs on Sunday, especially with a critically important matchup in Detroit coming four days later.
Vikings -- Saturday: "Justin Jefferson's production playing with Carson Wentz vs. JJ McCarthy is night-and-day." Sunday: More of the same. McCarthy has been a disaster. Managers rostering Jefferson or Jordan Addison -- or even TJ Hockenson -- need to hope this team turns back to Wentz . . . though that still seems like a longshot.
Bears -- Saturday: "Caleb Williams is less than a point-per-game shy of being the QB4." Sunday: He's still not a safe weekly starter, though he remains on the cusp.
Titans -- Saturday: "Tony Pollard vs. Tyjae Spears, and will it matter?" Sunday: There's simply not enough scoring to keep either one fantasy-relevant most weeks. And Calvin Ridley's out for the season, which should matter for fantasy, but probably doesn't.
Texans -- Saturday: "Once again, Nick Chubb vs. Woody Marks." Sunday: Marks out-touched Chubb 19-3. That's an exclamation point on a gradual season-long shift.
Bills -- Saturday: "Keon Coleman scored last week on eight looks -- his highest target total since Week 1. He also hasn't caught more than four passes since Week 1. A lot of unrealized potential." Sunday: Coleman was benched for disciplinary reasons, opening the door for the largely unknown Tyrell Shavers, who led Buffalo with four catches and 90 yards (along with a score). "#1" WR Khalil Shakir finished with minus-3 yards. There is no fantasy consistency beyond Josh Allen and James Cook.
Buccaneers -- Saturday: "Cade Otton is the only top-28 fantasy TE who hasn't scored." Sunday: Like Marks in Houston, Sean Tucker has been angling for a larger role, and yesterday he broke through. Bucky Irving's fantasy-playoff value takes another hit, as often happens when a less-experienced bell cow gets hurt and a backup rises to the occasion.
Falcons -- Early reports suggest Michael Penix's injury could sideline him. In all likelihood, this would be a net negative for Drake London, as backup Kirk Cousins isn't the same Kirk Cousins from 2023 or even 2024.
Panthers -- Saturday: "Bryce Young last topped 200 passing yards in Week 2. It's hard to effectively feed receivers with such low outputs." Sunday: 448 passing yards and three TDs. An incredible performance that helped elevate his two top receivers (and in fairness, they also helped elevate him). Young is now on pace for 3,335 yards and 26 TDs, keeping him on an upward trajectory as an increasingly fantasy-relevant QB.
Cardinals -- Exactly three months ago, I did a post on "must-draft 'undraftables.'" Basically, which undraftable players belonged on deep-league rosters? I wrote that "my favorite candidates this year are DJ Giddens (250 ADP), Kyle Monangai (263), and Michael Wilson (309)." Giddens never stepped up and lost out on Indy's handcuff role. Monangai proved himself when D'Andre Swift got hurt. And yesterday, with Marvin Harrison Jr. out, Michael Wilson caught nearly everything thrown to him. Admittedly, I had given up on Wilson a couple weeks ago. But the 2023 third-round pick showed he can be "the guy" if needed.
49ers -- Saturday: "How might Ricky Pearsall's anticipated return impact Jauan Jennings and even George Kittle?" Sunday: Not at all, though it's only a matter of time before Pearsall re-asserts himself.
Rams -- Saturday: 37-year-old Matthew Stafford's 20.9 fantasy points per game is his highest average since 2011." Sunday: A return to mediocrity, though Seattle's defense deserves credit, and Davante Adams probably wasn't at full strength. If you're planning to start him in the fantasy playoffs, you might prepare a backup plan for Week 16 when the Rams travel to Seattle.
Seahawks -- Saturday: "Is any receiver besides Jaxon Smith-Njigba worth streaming in what has become a crowded corps?" Sunday: No.
Broncos -- Saturday: "A few days after discussing the strong possibility of a JK Dobbins injury on this blog and on the podcast, he's officially out tomorrow and maybe much longer. RJ Harvey has a clear path to weekly top-16 production. But will head coach Sean Payton turn him loose?" Sunday: No. though his usage expanded in the second half. Seemingly softer matchups against Washington and Vegas are up next after their Week 12 bye.
Chiefs -- Saturday: "In the three games since Rashee Rice's midseason return, Xavier Worthy has 10 catches for 111 scoreless yards, and with so many capable WR/TE teammates beyond Rice, it's unclear when he'll return to fantasy relevance." Sunday: Another quiet performance for Worthy, as Rice and Travis Kelce were targeted on 49% of Patrick Mahomes' throws.
Browns -- Dillon Gabriel's injury opened the door for Shedeur Sanders. who had a forgettable debut. Then again, Gabriel has been barely adequate. Maybe Cleveland will get a closer look at Sanders down the stretch.
Ravens -- In his last six games, Lamar Jackson has rushed for only 156 scoreless yards. It's an astounding regression.
Eagles -- Saturday: "What do managers do with AJ Brown? While the risks are real, I think he has to be in starting lineups . . . just in case." Sunday: 11.9 fantasy points on a team-high 11 targets. Not much to cheer about, as that target share isn't sustainable in a run-heavy offense.
Lions -- Jameson Williams is still on a roll, and Sam LaPorta's injury probably had nothing to do with it, as backup TE Brock Wright matched Williams' seven targets.
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* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 118: "Comparing Cam Ward and JJ McCarthy" -- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745