Sometimes I want to research how players perform in their first game back from a multi-week injury. The problem is that there are too many variables to capture, and many of those variables aren't quantifiable.
For example, Bucky Irving is back today after a seven-game absence. His preseason ADP was RB11. Managers drafted him early, expecting must-start weekly production. But a lot has changed since he got hurt, and a lot more *might* change. He's averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. Rachaad White has played a little better, and Sean Tucker has played even better than that.
Head coach Todd Bowles has implied that Irving might be eased back in and that he's not guaranteed the lead-back role. So he could pick up where he left off, or he could get a few touches and then give way to Tucker and/or White, or somewhere in between. The key is that his value isn't the same now as it was a little over two months ago.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is in a similar situation. If he's back today, he'll have to earn Arizona's #1 WR job. Michael Wilson has played too well to revert to a secondary/tertiary role. Harrison was the unquestioned alpha pre-appendicitis. Now he might be unstartable in fantasy -- or something close to it.
So it's difficult to analyze how players perform in their first game back from an injury. Depth charts don't all operate the same way, and players aren't all viewed the same way. When Justin Jefferson missed seven games two years ago, rookie Jordan Addison stepped up and averaged 14.7 points per contest. In Jefferson's first game back, they both finished with 2-27-0 receiving lines. Addison netted 13.0 points in those next/final four games, while Jefferson averaged 22.1.
Realistically, Jefferson was never going to lose the #1 job, not matter how well Addison played. That pecking order was set in stone, and it remains that way today.
Increasingly though (it seems), depth charts aren't set in stone. I discuss this a little in last week's 125th episode of the FF4W podcast. It obviously has a huge impact on how we manage our teams. Injuries don't just hurt us while our player's out. They can also hurt us when the player returns, because the production we're banking on might not be doable, which forces us to make difficult decisions: start him and hope for the best, or replace him with a backup with (usually) a lower ceiling.
Good luck today.
---