Before jumping into tonight's game, one quick thing: today is the 100th episode of the daily Fantasy Football for Winners podcast. With this also being a daily blog, this is the most time I've invested in this community since launching it in 2013. I try to limit my “asks” each season. This is one of those times. If you'd feel comfortable taking a minute to leave a review or rating on one of the podcast apps (Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, etc.), I'd be grateful.
Continuing on with Thursday Night Football: There are three major fantasy pressure points in this matchup. Maybe more. For now, let's go with three.
The first is the return of Lamar Jackson. Like some of you, I drafted him early (around pick #20). Also drafted Patrick Mahomes a few rounds later. So last week I had the QB1 and QB2 in points per game. Took a calculated risk and traded Mahomes to upgrade at WR. Now I'm hoping Jackson can recapture last year's magic when it matters most.
He has everything he needs in this contest: a healthy receiving corps, a chain-moving Derrick Henry, and a defense yielding the fourth-most yards per carry (5.0), the highest QB completion percentage (73.7%), and the third-highest TD-INT ratio (11-1). Jackson is poised to dominate. Anything less would be at least mildly concerning.
A win would put Baltimore in a much stronger position (3-5 record) to compete in the AFC North, as a Steelers loss to the Colts on Sunday would place the Ravens only one game out of first place. If we want greater confidence that our players will be on the field for the fantasy playoffs, staying in the postseason hunt can only help.
The second pressure point concerns De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle. I discuss this in a lot more detail on today's podcast. Essentially, with the trade deadline less than a week away, the outcome of this contest might influence whether Miami moves more aggressively to unload top-tier talent ahead of a seemingly inevitable 2026 or 2027 rebuild. This, of course, could have major fantasy ripple effects. If you want stability, root for the Dolphins to win convincingly and show management that they can make another push for the playoffs.
Third, Derrick Henry. Of course he's a must-start. The question is whether there are cracks. He'll turn 32 in a couple months. After busting out in Week 1 with an 18-169-2 rushing line, he's averaged a sub-pedestrian 3.7 yards per carry while netting only four catches for 31 scoreless yards. One might argue (somewhat convincingly) that Jackson's absence has allowed defenses to focus more on stopping Henry. Tonight will help address whether his career-worst rushing-yards-after-first-contact (1.7) and career-worst broken-tackle rate (one per 27.3 carries) are easily correctable with Jackson under center.
Final score prediction: the underdog Dolphins in an upset, 39-33. Share your prediction below. If you also have a burner Facebook account, feel free to post a second prediction to double your odds. But don't go creating a burner Facebook account just to win this contest. It's not worth it -- not because winning isn't important, but because I've already won twice and plan to win again today.
That's right: I'm throwing the gauntlet. Gimme your best.
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