Some fantasy managers swear by the eye test. I prefer data.
This summer, Jacory Croskey-Merritt had more hype than any seventh-round rookie RB I can remember. In fairness, he fell in the draft because the NCAA mistakenly curtailed his college career. He runs hard and quickly ascended the depth chart, prompting Washington to send Brian Robinson Jr. to San Francisco. Then Austin Ekeler went down with a season-ending injury, and suddenly this backfield consisted of 2023 sixth-rounder Chris Rodriguez, 29-year-old journeyman Jeremy McNichols, and the high-flying Croskey-Merritt.
JCM proceeded to run over the Giants in his Week 1 debut, and then the Falcons and Chargers in weeks 4 and 5. He entered last night with four rushing scores and 5.2 yards per carry. Couldn't ask for much more than that. But in fantasy, managers need more, and last night was a blunt reminder of why I urged managers not to buy into the hype.
He's collected 14.2, 10.1, and 27.0 points in contests where he's scored. In the five games where he didn't find the end zone, he's posted 1.7, 7.7, 5.8, 4.2, and 2.5 points. The two most recent performances followed back-to-back contests where he lost a fumble (though one arguably wasn't his fault). Maybe he's focusing more on ball security and isn't running with as much confidence. Regardless, it's hard to justify starting him in any league.
Some might say, "Well, he's the starter, so that counts for something." But he has two major things going against him. The first is his lack of targets. He caught only 34 balls in 40 collegiate games, which has carried over to the pros, where he has seven in eight games. Barring a dramatic shift, he'll remain a TD-dependent two-down back with a low PPR floor.
The other factor going against him is Washington's lack of commitment to the running game -- or at least, to the *RB* running game. Late last night I pulled together rushing numbers for each player and then grouped them by team, dividing their totals by games played. The Commanders are averaging the second-fewest RB carries per game (17.4), behind only the Bengals. Cincinnati's challenges are more obvious: they need to pass early and often to compensate for a weak defense.
But Washington's a different team. Relatively speaking, they're simply not committed to the run. If JCM stood alone as the unquestioned bell cow, he might be a Derrick-Henry-lite running back with a 7-point floor. Instead, this is one of the league's least-friendly backfields, led by one of the league's least-versatile starting RBs. There is no obvious path for JCM to match or exceed lofty preseason expectations.
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