Wheen this season began, the Bengals' Super Bowl odds (20-1, per BetMGM) were twice as good as the Steelers' (40-1). Six games and one consequential injury later, the Steelers' odds (25-1) are now 10x better than the Bengals (250-1).
Their players' fantasy outlooks also have changed -- some equally dramatically, and some not so much. In Pittsburgh, Aaron Rodgers was viewed as one of the worst starting quarterbacks (QB28 ADP). Now he's the QB24 in points per game with a real shot at cracking the top 20 once he's finished with Cincy's beatable defense. Of course, nothing is guaranteed with post-prime Rodgers. After lighting up the Jets in Week 1, he's averaged only 13.1 fantasy points in a largely DK-Metcalf-or-bust passing attack.
The Steelers are averaging the third-fewest pass attempts per game, and that's made Metcalf more TD-dependent than ever. The 27-year-old entered this season netting 7.5 targets per contest. Now he's at a career-low 6.2. Aside from Calvin Austin III (4.3), no other Pittsburgh WR is averaging more than 0.6. Not "6." "0.6." It is one of the strangest team stat lines you'll ever see.
And it's not as if the tight ends are picking up the slack. Jonnu Smith's yards per reception (5.2) are less than half his career mark. He and Pat Freiermuth have to score, or else managers starting them assuredly will cry (or will want to cry if they feel it's socially acceptable).
The good news, I suppose, is that Cincinnati's surrendering the most TE fantasy points per game. But looking a little closer at the numbers, we can see that opposing teams target TEs more versus Cincinnati than versus any other team *except* Arizona. 28% of those looks came in Week 1, when Joe Flacco (then with Cleveland) had little choice but to dump off to tight ends David Njoku and Harold Fannin. Other TE production against the Bengals came from guys like Sam LaPorta and TJ Hockenson, both of whom arguably have higher ceilings than Pittsburgh's tandem.
The ground game offers a little more predictability, though that assumes sustained targets for Jaylen Warren (3.5 per game) and Kenneth Gainwell (4.4). Doable, and also . . . who knows how this backfield will shake out. Warren's 3.4 yards per carry is more than a full yard off his career average, and Gainwell's presence make him (and frankly, both of them), merely fringe streamers. Against the Bengals, that might be enough. Against tougher defenses, it's a toss-up.
For Cincinnati, all eyes are on Flacco, and then all eyes are quickly retrained on the team's core trio: Ja'Marr Chase is a must-start simply "because." And no doubt he dominated week thanks to a mad-dash fourth quarter. Tee Higgins is still a stream-and-hope wideout, with extra weight on the word "hope." And as discussed on an earlier podcast, Chase Brown is as risky as ever. Since Week 1, his touches have declined from 23 to 18 to 14 to 13, then up to 15, and finally down to 11 this past Sunday. Some of that is due to game script, and the rest of it is due a clear regression (across many advanced metrics) compared to last year.
Finally, TE Noah Fant is actually a deep-league streamer with Mike Gesicki out of the picture. Fant led all Bengals tight ends in snaps last week and, excluding his Week 4 bust when he had only 15 snaps, he's averaged 7.7 points per game. Flacco's in the midst of career lows in intended air yards per pass attempt, as well as completed air yards per catch. Fant stands to benefit from Flacco's increased love of the short game.
Final score prediction: a Bengals upset, 23-15. Leave yours below, and bonus points if you predict 0-0.
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