Not sure which team needs a win more: the 4-1 Eagles or the 1-4 Giants. Philly has Super Bowl aspirations and securing the NFC's #1 seed is probably top-of-mind. A victory for New York would keep them relevant and serve as a huge morale boost for a young offensive nucleus playing without their star wideout. They already beat the 3-0 Chargers despite losing Malik Nabers in the second quarter. They're a good team building toward something much better in 2026.
Interestingly, the Eagles' and Bills' losses a few days ago means there are no more undefeated teams -- the earliest this has happened in 11 years. And Philly was the last undefeated team (or co-last undefeated team) in two of the prior three seasons. The one exception was last season, which is notable because it's been 19 years since a "last undefeated team" won the Super Bowl. And since 2000, the average winning percentage for "last undefeateds" after their first loss is .533. Not great.
Philly's overall regression this season might be a sign of things to come. They're averaging 2.2 fewer points and yielding 4.0 more points per game compared to last year. AJ Brown is not happy. Dallas Goedert is battling injuries, per usual, though he's already one TD away from matching his career-high. DeVonta Smith has been "fine." Saquon Barkley is showing the effects of his nearly 500-touch 2024 campaign.
For his part, Jalen Hurts has looked terrific with a 7-0 TD-INT clip and four rushing scores. In hindsight, he's been the team's only must-start fantasy option. That is bound to change. The question is "when." The answer might be tonight against a very beatable defense.
Some context on Brown's struggles: He's averaging only 0.2 fewer targets per game compared to 2024. The problem is that both of those marks were significantly below his Philly target share in 2022 and 2023. One of my podcast episodes over the summer mentioned one concern Brown -- that his 2024 per-game stats were inflated due to a near-career-high 11.1 yards per target. He did a lot with less in 13 games. He was overall WR20 despite being 39th in targets. That didn't seem easily sustainable.
If he doesn't right the ship tonight, it will be a minor disaster. But he's still a buy-low WR.
For the Giants, Tyrone Tracy's return presumably will cap Cam Skattebo's ceiling. But I also wouldn't overthink it. Tracy had more touches in Week 1, and that's all. Skattebo has outplayed him, and that should continue as the rookie solidifies his standing atop the depth chart . . . as long as he doesn't keep fumbling. Today's podcast episode discusses Tracy in more detail, highlighting why (based on historical data) he's a sell-now RB in re-draft and dynasty.
Through the air, Darius Slayton's absence shouldn't negatively impact Jaxson Dart too much, and Wan'Dale Robinson still has too much upside to bench in deeper leagues. Meanwhile, TE Theo Johnson already has 12 targets and three scores in Dart's two starts. I couldn't justify *not* starting him, because clearly he's one of Dart's two favorite targets.
Final score prediction: Eagles win 33-20. Brown goes off for 9-144-1.
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